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Weak Saturday…dogs were barking in UFC and we weren’t on any of them. The Lightning sucked too. It’s ok to be pissed, I’m pissed too. Need a Sunday, let’s go get it.

NFL:

3:05 EST

Teaser

Bucs (+10) / Bills (+9.5) – The Packers are the #1 seed and they come in on a 7 game winning streak and they are 8-1 at home this season. I get all that BUT we are getting +10 points for Tom Brady and the Bucs who beat the Packers 38-10 in the regular season. That was way back in October but it’s hard to forget the Bucs getting down 10-0 before running off 38 straight points. That was the lowest scoring game for the Packers on the season. This Bucs offense is really clicking and has scored 30+ in 5 straight games. The Packers might win, Bucs might win. It should be a good game but give me +10 on the teaser for Tom Brady and the Bucs. Then we have the hottest team in the league, the Bills getting +9.5! It’s been 10 weeks since they last lost a game and that loss came on a Hail Mary. Buffalo was impressive against the Ravens last week and held them to just 3 points. I know the wind was howling but holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3 points is outstanding defense. They won’t hold the Chiefs to 3 points tonight but I trust this defense to come up with some stops and keep this game close. Josh Allen and the Bills offense have shown that they can keep up with the Chiefs offense. Bills averaged 30.3 and the Chiefs averaged 29.1 ppg in the regular season. I think Buffalo has a really good chance to win this game outright but getting +9.5 is too hard to pass up on. Book it.

3:05 EST

Player Prop

Rob Gronkowski Total Receptions Over (2.5) – Gronk had 5 targets last week and I think Brady will be looking his way in this game today. Looking back to the matchup against the Packers back in October, Gronk had 5 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Brady has targeted Gronk 47 times in Conference Championship games. We can all agree that Gronk isn’t what he used to be but these two have a connection and 3 catches in this game seems like a lock.

3:05 EST

Player Prop

Ronald Jones Total Rushing Yards Over (36.5) – Ronald Jones has been dealing with quad and finger injuries but he was a full participant in practice on Friday and all reports say he’s good to go. He was questionable last week and he ran the ball 13 times for 62 yards on a very good #3 ranked Saints run defense. With the reports that he was a full go on Friday I think he will get even more carries today and that can only help him hit this 36.5 for us. He ran for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Packers back in October.

3:05 EST

Player Prop

Aaron Jones Total Rushing Yards Over (61.5) – Jones just ran for 99 yards last week against the #3 ranked run defense. He will face another tough test against this Bucs defense who rank #1 against the run. The Bucs allowed Kamara to run for 85 last week. I probably wouldn’t touch this one if it was up in the 70s but 61.5 is tempting. Jones has gone over 61.5 in 6 of his last 7 games. He should get around 15 carries and he should be able to go over 61.5 for us.

6:40 EST

Player Prop

Travis Kelce To Score a Touchdown (-130) – Kelce got in the end zone twice against the Bills in the regular season game that the Chiefs won 26-17. Kelce has also scored a touchdown in each of his last 5 games. I think the uncertainty of Mahomes is why I like Kelce to score more than Hill. Mahomes might not be able to create those big plays that we are so accustomed to seeing. Kelce is Mahomes go to guy in the red zone and I think we will see him get in the end zone at least once in this game.