MORNING guys, it’s NFL Playoffs today and I hope you’re fucking ready! I haven’t been hot lately and I think I need to get back to being myself and really diving into each game deeply and giving you guys my thoughts so today is the first day of forever and here we go:
Raiders @ Texans (-3.5) O/U (36.5)
Rematch of Nov 21 and Raiders won 27-20 WITH Derek Carr
Texans don’t have many GOOD wins this season. Beat the Colts twice I guess.
Connor Cook – first career start ever. In the playoffs. On the road. – The first NFL QB in the Superbowl era to have his first career start come in the playoffs.
He came in last Sunday against the Broncos D and went 14-21 for 150 yards and a td.
I think the Raiders are going to plan on relying on Latavius Murray to take the pressure off of Connor Cook. The Texans were 12th against the run this season giving up just under 100 yards per game to opposing rushers. When these two teams faced off on November 21, Murray only had 33 yards on 12 carries. Granted Carr was playing that game and throwing the ball around the field but if Murray is going to get 2.8 yards per carry today, that will NOT be enough.
Where is the action in Vegas on this one? As of 8:30 a.m. Covers is reporting that 51% of the action is on the Raiders to cover the (3.5) and 54% of the action is on the under at (36.5). What do I think about that? I thought all week that there would be 65% or more on the Texans and I agreed with that. It’s a good sign that 51% is on the Raiders.
What’s the play?
I love the Texans to cover the (-3.5) in this game today. I don’t trust a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road in the playoffs. He did ok last week in Denver which I know is a tough place to play but what were the Broncos playing for at that point? They had there legal weed and waterbongs set up in the locker room because there fucking season was over. Give me the Texans to cover.
What about a teaser?
If you are going to tease, I would go Texans to (+3.5) with the OVER at (30.5) – yes, I’m nervous about the Raiders offense but I’m more comfortable with this game going over 30.5 than under 42.5.
Lions @ Seahawks (-8) O/U (43.5)
Seahawks were up and down all year, and they had a game where they scored 5 points and a game where they scored 6 points. Yeah.
Seahawks good wins – New England, Atlanta, yea that’s about it.
Lions good wins – Washington, I guess. Minnesota twice? I guess. Nothing that will get you chubbed up about.
I think that Stafford will come out firing tonight against the Seahawks and that is what he did all season long to get this Lions team where they are today (threw on average 37 times per game this season). He had 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. The Seahawks were 8th in passing defense this season but the only good quarterbacks that they beat were Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. PLEASE NOTE: The win against Tom Brady should be taken with a grain OR TWO of salt because Brady had Gronk wide open for the win on 4th and goal and Gronk was tackled with no flag. Anyways, back to this game. Seattle gave up an average of 225 passing yards per game this season and had 11 interceptions. They also forced 18 fumbles. What’s the key to the game? Will the Lions be able to protect the ball and not turn it over. IF the Lions turn the ball over, they will get fucking blown out – mark my words. If they protect the ball, I think they can keep it close and have a chance at pulling away with this one in the 4th quarter. Yup, I said it – I think the Lions have a chance to win this game outright IN Seattle the perky defense and horny 12th man.
Where is the action in Vegas?
As of 8:30 a.m. 61% of the action is on the Lions to cover the (8) and 58% of the action is on the over at (43.5). What do I think about that? Fuck. I really think that the Lions have a shot to win this game outright but if 61% of the action is on them to cover that makes me a little sketchy. Vegas has been known to play tricks every now and then and I have to be honest, this (+8) seems too good to be true.
What’s the play?
You have to play it safe in this game and go with a double teaser – yes, you can do this. You will tease the Lions up to (+14) and you will tease the Seahawks down to (-2). Looking at that, it looks way too good to be true. But the difference with the teaser looking that good against the standard spread looking that good is the fact that there aren’t as many people who play double teasers because most people don’t even know that they exist. I have kept this one in my back pocket all season and today is the day that we pull out the trick play, the double fucking teaser.
I really just don’t see vegas taking a huge hit on this Saturday night prime time game of 61% on the Lions to cover the 8. I’m a firm believer in that and I always will be.
I will be honest, I am going to sprinkle a little bit of sauce on a parlay with the Lions and Giants winning because it pays 10-1 odds. I will only be putting $10 on it because I do think there is slight opportunity there but not much.
Rangers/Blue Jackets OVER 5.5. – Rangers lead the league with 139 goals for and the Blue Jackets are right behind them at 3rd overall with 124 goals for. Look for a lot of scoring in this one. I don’t always go nuts about over unders when they aren’t set at 5 but I think this one is too juicy to NOT take.
Capitals ML – They beat the Sens 2-1 in a close game last week but the Caps offense has really heat up since then and scored 6 goals then 5 goals in the previous two games. Look for the Caps to score and run away with this one.
Raptors (-2) – The Raptors have not seen the Bulls yet this season but there is something going on in Chicago and I’m not sure that what they tried putting together will work. The Raptors are scoring 110 points per game and the Bulls are scoring 101 points per game. I like the Raptors to cover the (-2).