MORNING guys, it’s NFL Playoffs today and I hope you’re fucking ready! I haven’t been hot lately and I think I need to get back to being myself and really diving into each game deeply and giving you guys my thoughts so today is the first day of forever and here we go:
Raiders @ Texans (-3.5) O/U (36.5)
Rematch of Nov 21 and Raiders won 27-20 WITH Derek Carr
Texans don’t have many GOOD wins this season. Beat the Colts twice I guess.
Connor Cook – first career start ever. In the playoffs. On the road. – The first NFL QB in the Superbowl era to have his first career start come in the playoffs.
He came in last Sunday against the Broncos D and went 14-21 for 150 yards and a td.
I think the Raiders are going to plan on relying on Latavius Murray to take the pressure off of Connor Cook. The Texans were 12th against the run this season giving up just under 100 yards per game to opposing rushers. When these two teams faced off on November 21, Murray only had 33 yards on 12 carries. Granted Carr was playing that game and throwing the ball around the field but if Murray is going to get 2.8 yards per carry today, that will NOT be enough.
Where is the action in Vegas on this one? As of 8:30 a.m. Covers is reporting that 51% of the action is on the Raiders to cover the (3.5) and 54% of the action is on the under at (36.5). What do I think about that? I thought all week that there would be 65% or more on the Texans and I agreed with that. It’s a good sign that 51% is on the Raiders.
What’s the play?
I love the Texans to cover the (-3.5) in this game today. I don’t trust a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road in the playoffs. He did ok last week in Denver which I know is a tough place to play but what were the Broncos playing for at that point? They had there legal weed and waterbongs set up in the locker room because there fucking season was over. Give me the Texans to cover.