9/23


2-1 yesterday, Tanaka let us down against the Jays who he has always dominated. What a marathon that fucking Dbacks game was huh? Runs, runs, runs. I tried to watch it but it wasn’t just the runs slowing it down. Pitcher steps off, batter steps out, full count, walk, walk, pitchers steps off, batter steps out, mound visit, grand slam, new pitcher, ect. I’m glad we were able to hit on that because that was a big price and I certainly did not expect Greinke to give up as many runs as he did – 8 earned. College football Saturday but before we get to football, I’ve got a baseball winner for you.

MLB:

Cubs (Hendricks) 5x baseballs – Hendricks has held the Brewers lineup to a .202 avg in 129 at bats. On the flip side, the Cubs lineup is hitting just under 300 against Suter in 34 career at bats. Great match up and I know Saturdays are for football now but I think this is a must play.

NCAAF:

Straight plays:

So last weekend, straight picks went 2-1 for College Football. Our loss came with UCLA losing a game with absolutely no defense played and we should have just taken the over. I don’t usually bring up losses a week later because I only hang on to them until the next day when we make our picks. BUT this one stung a little bit. Why? This was the first loss we took on a straight pick the entire CFF season, 3 weeks in. I guess that’s not terrible but you guys know me, I like to go on unbelievable winning streaks! Let’s blame the loss of the straight pick last week on booze for breakfast and disgusting strippers distracting me at my bachelor party. New streak starts today – let’s get it.

Oklahoma State/TCU OVER 72 5x footballs – talk about a team that can score the football quickly. Let me throw you some numbers – TCU scores this season – 63, 28, 56. How about Oklahoma State scores this season – 59, 44, 59. If I do my math correctly, 72/2 we need 36 a side. After looking at these numbers, I’m pretty fucking confident that we can get 36 a side from two of the top offenses so far this season. Now you might say, “Yea, Kof but who the fuck have they played? These defenses don’t give up that many points.” So let’s take a peak at that. TCU points allowed this season – Jackson State 0, Arkansas 7, SMU 36. I’ll take the 36 from SMU and say that Oklahoma St is a much better offense than SMU. 36 a side right? OK St can put up 36 and probably more on this TCU defense. So let’s look at Oklahoma St points allowed. Tulsa 24, South Alabama 7, Pitt 21. So here I say that I think Oklahoma St defense is better than the numbers indicate because the only reason they give up points is because their offense scores so quickly. I like OK ST to put up a number in the 40 or 50’s and TCU should put up a number in the 30’s. I’m confident in this over today and if you’re still on the fence about it – life is too short to take the under!

Florida (-2) 5x footballs – The Gators showed me something last week in the fantastic game against Tennessee. I think there is a ton of value in them at -2 on the road against Kentucky today. What is impressive on Kentucky’s resume? 3-0 but nothing else. They haven’t done anything spectacular or played any really good teams. I know it’s a new team every year but Florida has beat Kentucky 30 times in a row. Kentucky hasn’t beat Florida in football since 1986. That just goes to show the different level of these football programs. I’m taking the Gators to make it 31 in a row and it’ll be by more than 2. Lock it up.

Mississippi State MONEYLINE (+157) 4x footballs – I hate to do this to the Bulldawgs because you guys know I’m pretty high on them this year and they have won us some good money in the first three weeks. BUT I don’t hate making money and the money is on the Mississippi State moneyline tonight. Georgia’s key win this season was against Notre Dame (in Notre Dame) 20-19. Mississippi State’s key win was last week at home against LSU but they absolutely destroyed them 37-7. That was pretty impressive and eye opening to me. With the high powered offense and good defense that was displayed last week against another solid SEC opponent, I think this Mississippi State team fires on all cylinders and goes into Georgia to get the win straight up tonight.

Notre Dame (-3) – again, I must have been fucked up last week but I have been seeing commercials for Notre Dame vs BC football game that was supposed to be played at Fenway Park last week. Turns out the game wasn’t at Fenway. BUT – Notre Dame still covered so that’s all that you guys really care about. Tonight, ND will host Michigan State and when I think of Michigan State, I think of good defense. I think that this will be a really close game as the spread indicates but I do like ND to cover the -3. ND has a good defense as well so this could be a low scoring game. I see that over under staring me in the eyes at 54 but I’m more confident in ND -3 than the over/under at 54.

Teasers:

Alabama (-13.5)

Mississippi St (+10)

Michigan (-5)

Standord (-1)

Penn St (-5.5)

NFL: BONUS PICK on a Saturday with the early game. No, I just know that I might booze a bit tonight and I might not be up in time to get a pick posted before the 9:30 game.

Ravens (-3.5) – don’t want to miss out on an absolute lock just because the NFL is trying to expand their brand into London and play an early game. The Ravens have started off 2-0 and looked pretty good even though they have played two of the worse teams in the league. The Jags on the other hand have looked great in one game but then pretty bad in the second game. The Titans ran away with it last week against the Jags and beat them 37-16. I think the Titans are a better team than the Ravens this year but I do think that the Ravens are a better team than the Jags. They Ravens are good for 20-27 points and their defense should be able to hold the Jags offense to 7-14.