Good day yesterday going 4-0 yesterday leading into WILD CARD WEEKEND. Playoff football. Nothing beats it and there’s no better sporting event to bet on than a playoff football game. I was actually lucky enough to get the invite to the Chiefs Titans game but unfortunately I couldn’t get down there this weekend due to some family commitments (obviously not during football!!). I really am grateful for the relationships that I have with all of my VIP members. This isn’t the only invite I’ve got from a VIP member to hang out. I’ve been invited to Southwest Florida to do some fishing, I’ve been invited to NYC to get blackout and throw stacks on games, I’ve tailgated at Pats games with a few of you guys, I’ve been invited to a March Madness game, and I watched one of the best comebacks in Celtics history with two of you. I am truly grateful for the relationships that I have built with all of you. Thank you for that! Now let’s get to the fucking picks!!
Titans @ Chiefs – Trivia Saturday for you guys, what is one of the most important factors when it comes to playoff football (or any sport for that matter)? How you’ve been playing lately. I’m going to throw out week 17 because the Chiefs didn’t play a meaningful game and the Titans needed to win but their opponent didn’t need to do anything so that game doesn’t mean much to me. So how are the Chiefs playing lately in meaningful games? They had their 4 game skid but they finished the season strong and won three meaningful games in a row from week 14-16. 26-15 over the Raiders and it wasn’t as close as the score shows, 30-13 over the Chargers, and 29-13 over the Dolphins. They are looking pretty good and the good play is coming at the right time for them. How bout the Titans? They won their final game that they needed to to lock up the playoff berth. Before that in the same stretch that the Chiefs went 3-0 with convincing wins, the Titans went 0-3. 12-7 loss against the Cardinals (YIKES), 25-23 loss against Jimmg G and the 49ers, and 27-23 loss to the Rams (this is an impressive loss to me). So we have two teams that have been trending in complete opposite directions. Based off of that, I can tell you confidently that the Chiefs will win this game. Unfortunately for us, (-460) moneyline isn’t something that’s worth taking unless you use it as a parlay piece. The spread in this game is (-9). Let’s look a little deeper. The “feels like” temp for game time is 20 degrees in KC with 11 MPH winds (that’s not the reason why I didn’t come – the “feels like” here in Mass is 6 degrees). The Titans will be without one of their top offensive weapons in Demarco Murray. I think both offenses will go into this game with the run first mindset. The Titans rank 4th in rushing defense and the Chiefs rank 25th although I think that’s a faulty stat do to some high scoring games this season. I think the Chiefs will be able to establish somewhat of a running game and that will open short passing playing out of the backfield to Kareem Pie. I’m not expecting a very high scoring game in this one with both teams running the ball they will chew up clock so I think the under should be a solid play at (45) but even better if you tease it to 51. I don’t expect many HUGE plays/quick scoring in this game. Like I said, I like the Chiefs to win this game but based on the way I expect this game to play out, I think the Titans will be able to keep it close and I think they will cover the (+9) even if it takes a last minute run by Derrick Henry to cover (like he did 3 times this season. Last thing I’ll point out is 56% of the action is on the Titans as of 10 a.m. EST.
Picks (in order of confidence):
Chiefs moneyline (for a parlay only unless you are REALLY dropping the hammer on it)
Under teased (51)
Chiefs teased (-3)
Titans teased (+15)
Falcons @ Rams – How did the Rams finish the season? They won 8 of the final 10 meaningful games and 4 of the last 5 meaningful games. The Falcons on the flip side won 7 of their final 10 and 3 of their last 4. So we have two teams here that are playing good football at the right time and this game should be a good one. The Rams are favored by (-5.5) and the action is currently a 50% split in Vegas. That sums up how I feel about this game – it really could go either way. Unlike the first game of the day, the weather in this one is going to be beautiful. I’m expecting a lot of scoring in this one too. Back and forth, lots and lots of scoring. How do these defenses stack up? Falcons are ranked 9th against the run so they will have a chance to contain Gurley. Rams are 28th against the run so Freeman and Coleman should be able to get the running game going. Falcons are 12th against the pass while the Rams are 13th against the pass. So there you have the numbers in front of you but the one thing that isn’t included in the numbers is how this young Rams team will respond to a playoff setting? Young quarterbacks specifically usually don’t do great early on in their careers in playoff games. Granted, Goff can turn and hand the ball off to Gurley no matter how nervous he is. But if he gets in a shootout (what I’m expecting) with Matt Ryan who has been there and done that, I think that is a HUGE advantage for the Falcons. I am going to take the Falcons to win this game.
Picks: (in order of confidence)
Falcons teased (+11.5)
Falcons MONEYLINE (+195) tell your bookie FUCK YOU PAY ME!
OVER teased to (43.5)
Lightning ML 5x hockey sticks – going to have to murder this heavy moneyline. The Lightning continue to prove that they are one of the best teams in hockey. The Senators don’t belong on the same ice with them and the Lightning bounce back tonight after losing against the Habs the other night due to a ridiculous save….BOOM. Lightning.
Celtics (-1) / Pacers (-1) – No let down for the Celtics and no concern with that pick. You may be sketched out by the Pacers pick since the lost to the Bulls 119-107 on 12/29 and Oladipo is out. I’m here to tell you why you shouldn’t be worried. This the Bulls 5th game and 7 days and 3rd game in 4 days. They had lost 3 in a row before winning last night in Dallas 127-124. Then they hopped on the plane and traveled to a different time zone (losing an hour) to play the Pacers less than 24 hours later while the Pacers have had 2 days off. Pacers end their 5 game losing streak tonight and win big.
Better day yesterday going 2-0. Let’s see what we have for today.
Thomas over Dechambeau
Fowler over Kim
Matsuyama over Dufner
Johnson over Perez
Parlay the Thomas/Fowler for (+105) odds.