1-7 VIP Picks

Quite a start to wild card weekend going 6-2 on NFL picks. Two great games to watch as a bettor, not so fun to watch if you are a Chiefs or Rams fan (sorry guys, I know a few of you are). I’ll stop there because it’s not right to rub in a playoff loss. Let’s take a look at today’s games.


Bills @ Jaguars – What have you done for me lately? Bills won 3 of their final 4 and the one loss was “because of the non catch call that the Patriots would have got called a catch.” Right – that caused the 21 point difference. Anyways – Bills finished the season strong and did what they had to do to get into the playoffs and I’m proud of them for that. The Jags won three of the final 4 meaningful games and then lost to the Titans in the final week of the season which didn’t mean anything to the Jags playoff seeding. They will be hosting their first playoff game in the 2000 generation, lol. That’s fucking crazy. So this is a big deal for Jags fans, first home playoff game since 1999. Although I don’t think any of them will be in the pool today at the stadium because it’s only going to be 48 degrees at kick off.

Let’s take a look at how these teams match up. The Jags will look to feed Fournette the rock today and I don’t think the Bills will be able to stop him. The Bills rank 28th in the league against the run allowing 124 yards per game. His player prop is (95.5) and I’m taking it. The Jags rank 21st against the run allowing 116 yards per game but the Bills top rusher – SHADY McCoy is battling an ankle injury. I think he will be playing but I don’t know how effective he will be. If McCoy can’t make a difference, I think the Bills are fucked. McCoy also leads the team in receptions and the Bills run plays to get him out in space. It will be interesting to see how he does on the first few drives. If McCoy is not effective, the Bills 31st ranked passing offense will be going up against the 1st ranked defense against the pass – advantage Jacksonville. McCoy’s injury is a huge factor in this game but I’m leaning towards him being less effective and that’s not good news for the Bills. 58% of the money in Vegas in on the Bills to cover, Vegas lost yesterday with 56% on the Titans and 51% on the Falcons. They will make some money back on this one.


Jaguars (-9) – maybe a few fans will get drunk and jump in the pool when the Jags win big.

Leonard Fournette OVER (95.5) rushing yards

I can’t touch the O/U in this game because I’m not super confident in the Bills offense today not knowing the status of their number one guy. Seems low but Vegas probably knows more about the status on McCoy than us. Stay away.

Panthers @ Saints

It’s tough to beat a team three times in one season in the NFL, you always hear that. The Saints are 2-0 against the Panthers this season and they will look to make it 3-0 tonight. The Saints went 2-2 in their final 4 while the Panthers went 3-1. One of the wins for the Panthers was against the Vikings which is a pretty impressive win to me. That doesn’t change the fact that the Saints have won pretty easily against the Panthers in both matchups this season. Let’s take a closer look.

On paper, you think the Panthers run defense matches up well against the one two punch of Ingram and Kamara. The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL against the run allowing 88 yards per game. However, they had two of their worst games against the run both times they played the Saints. They allowed 149 rushing yards in week 3 and 148 in week 13. They will need to make some adjustments to slow down the run and I think they will. On the offensive side of the ball, the Panthers will have Greg 3rd leg Olsen playing who they did not have in the first two match ups this season. I think he will make a huge difference for this offense and it will allow the Panthers to convert on 3rd down. Do I think the Panthers win? Maybe…Do I think they cover? YES. The over under is set at 48 for this game and the first two meetings between these two teams led to scores of 47 and 55. Having Greg Olsen back should help the Panthers convert on Red Zone opportunities. I’m liking the over in this one.


Over teased to (42)

Panthers teased to (+13)

Over (48)

Panthers (+7)

Greg Olsen to score a TD (+450)

Not all player props have been posted but I like Olsen to have over 5 catches…prop will probably be 5.5 and I’ll go over that.


Looking good on that Dustin Johnson to win bet that was (+450) on Thursday, he’s sitting at the top and he is currently (-250) to win. We split golf bets yesterday so let’s try and have a winning day today to finish up the first tournament of the season.


Thomas over Bryan

Spieth over Kim

Johnson over Harman

Pays (+185)