Let’s take a look back to last year’s Superbowl picks:
"It’s here boys, the biggest betting day of the year. It’s going to be a great fucking day. I hope you guys ate up the prop bets that I released yesterday. If you see anything specific that you want my input on just let me know.
How the Patriots win? The Pats establish the running game early with Blount and that opens up the passing game for Brady to take a couple shots down field. The defensive scheme that BB draws up confuses Matt Ryan and takes away the number one weapon, Julio Jones.
How the Falcons win? They get pressure on Brady and also stop the run. These two tasks will not be easy but if they can find a way to accomplish both of these things, they will come away with the win.
What’s the play?
Patriots moneyline – I think that this game means too much to the Patriots to not come away with a win. Revenge tour has been going on all season and I just don’t see them losing. Everyone talks about the #1 offense against the #1 defense but no ones talking about the #3 offense against the #23 defense. This is the safe play and I suggest you go HEAVY,
Patriots (-3) – If the Patriots get a lead early and up by two scores this one could turn into a rout.
Teaser: Pats (+3) Under (64).
Hydrate, eat good food, and enjoy the fucking game guys."
Not bad on the picks last year going 3-1, that's in the past though and it's about 2018 now. Here we go:
It’s here, it’s finally here!! Let’s take a look at the big game.
The Eagles - They come into this game with the #1 ranked rushing defense allowing less than 80 yards per game. They have the #17 ranked pass defense allowing 227 yards per game. This defense ranked #4 in takeaways during the regular season with 19 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries. This defense is certainly very good and not one that you look forward to facing as an opponent. As good as the defense has been, the offense has been just as good. The Eagles ranked 3rd in points scored per game this season with 28.3. The Eagles lost their starting QB late in the season but Foles has proved that he can lead this high powered offense. He has been a Pro Bowl QB before and he is tied with 7 other QBs for the most touchdown passes in a single game record with 7. So there is no need for Eagles fans to be worried about their QB situation, Nick Foles will be just fine. The Eagles will be the best rounded team that the Patriots have faced all season.
The Patriots - The Pats come into this game with one of the worst defenses in the league this season when it comes to yards allowed. However, they ranked 5th when it comes to points allowed per game. That’s what you call bend but don’t break defense. They have had a few spots this season that they come up with a stop when they need it most - think Pittsburgh think Jacksonville. They are missing their leader Donte Hightower as he’s injured and he is a HUGE piece of this defense. As for the offense, Tom Brady. That’s really what it comes down to. This offense was 2nd in points per game this season and that was without the top receiver Julian Edelman. A lot of weapons missed time due to injuries this season yet Brady was still able to lead this offense to be the second highest scoring offense in the league. I trust Brady and this offense to put a drive together and get points with as little as 30 seconds of game time. That could be key in this game because the last team that scores COULD be the team that wins this game.
So what do I think is going to happen? I think we can expect a great football game and I expect this game to be a close one. I’m expecting multiple lead changes and it will be tight into the second half. That type of game favors the Patriots, look at the history. Look at the Eagles wins this year and look how many of those games were close games. Week 3 27-24 win over the New York Giants (how were they this season)? Week 4 26-24 win over the Chargers. Week 6 28-23 win over the Panthers. Week 14 43-35 win over the Rams (probably the most impressive one on the list). Week 15 34-29 win against those New York Giants. In those games, they didn’t deal with a quarterback who is as clutch as Brady. I’m taking Brady in a tight game any day of the week. Like I said, I think it’s tight into the second half but the momentum shifts the Patriots way after a big touchdown in the 4th followed by a huge play by the Pats defense, yeah, I said it. After that, the Pats coast to their 6th.
Final Score: Patriots 31 Eagles 24
Pats ML (-180) – obviously a little large but I’m comfortable absolutely pounding it.
Patriots (-4) If your book has it at (-4.5) buy the half point so if the Pats win by 4 it pushes.
Pats (+1.5) / OVER (42.5)