March has been nothing but Madness this year and the NCAA Tournament has been loaded with unpredictable upsets, underdogs with “zero” chance of winning have come out and not only won but some have dominated their opponents that all (not many but all) experts considered the far superior teams. I don’t even need to bother asking you how your bracket is doing because I know it’s busted (unless you are @avinmash – the dude who is leading the KofSports March Madness Pool).
There have been some upsets that people could have seen coming but others have left us all scratching our heads. True story – I sit down with my wife last Wednesday to fill out her bracket, I usually just read the names of the teams and let her pick a winner. “UMBC or Virginia?” She says, “UMBC.” I tell her, “Nope, not going to happen – a one seed has never lost to a sixteen seed.” That didn’t work out great for me and I’ve been sleeping in the man cave ever since.
From a sports betting aspect, it has been a TOUGH stretch for many bettors and these upsets have been tough for people to deal with. How does a 20 point favorite actually lose by 20? Good work, Virginia! What would the odds have been for an adjusted spread of UMBC (-20.5)? 10 billion to 1? I wouldn’t have even thrown a buck on that. All of these upsets had me wondering, what if some genius out there bet all of these games? Stu Feiner claims he did but he doesn’t have the tickets to PROVE IT. I believe that Stu hit on a few because he’s a beast, but there’s no way he hit on all of them. It’s not realistic to think that someone bet and won on all of these underdogs, but what if you did? If you came into the March Madness thinking, I’m going to put $100 on every underdog and see where it gets me – you would be up $2,503.92 as of today (with more upsets to come). That’s calculated based on you betting $100 on the underdog moneyline for every single game of the tournament. Now, if you had special powers to predict the future 100% and you bet $100 on all of the underdogs that won, you would be up $5,782.92.
Am I saying that you should start betting the underdog moneylines starting tonight? Nope, even after all of the madness I wouldn’t be putting $100 on Cuse tonight. It would be interesting to go back and analyze the last ten year moneyline history results for underdogs and see if there is a trend. We may have missed the opportunity this year, but there’s always next year. I will start doing some homework and let you all know.