2018 MLB Season Preview


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Regular Season Wins: Over Under

New York Mets (82.5) – I’m taking the over on this one and this is my favorite over under available this year.

Can the pitching stay healthy? That’s always the question with the Mets but if they do, they will be dominant. I think Synderdaard is a legit contender for the NL Cy Young this season. Mets will get their closer back in Familia after an injury last year, Cespedes will be back. I really like bringing back Jay Bruce and the two veteran signings in Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez and I think Citi Field is a good fit for their swings. I think the Mets will surprise a lot of people and when then get into the playoffs, Syndergaard, deGrom, and a confident Harvey is a rotation that’s scary to fuck with. I think this over 82.5 goes way over. I like the Mets to win between 89-94 games this year.

Houston Astros (97.5) – Yeah, 97 is a lot of wins but this team is definitely capable of achieving much more than that. They are the defending World Champs and they got even better during the offseason. Full season of Verlander and he could have the best year of his career at the age of 35. Their pitching rotation is deeper than anyone else in the majors. Watch out for the Astros. OVER.

Washington Nationals (93.5) – Over city. They won 97 games last season and I really think they will top the 100 game mark this season. Bryce Harper is going to be an absolute monster this year, per usual but even more because he is on the verge of getting a contract worth $400 million after the season. This lineup was #6 overall in runs per game last season scoring 5 runs a game. I think the lineup will be just as good if not better this year. The starting pitching is great with the top 3 Scherzer, Strasburg, and Gonzalez. I do think they will need to make a move to bring in some bullpen guys to prepare for the postseason but I don’t think it’ll slow them down in the regular season.

Props (offered by sportsbook.ag)

Most homeruns by any player (49.5) – I’ll take the over on that. Stanton hit 59 last year and his new home is Yankee Stadium. He’s my number one candidate to smoke this over under. Other potential 50+ guys? Healthy Josh Donaldson (most he ever hit was 41 but this is a contract year). Aaron Judge (he hit 52 last year as a rookie). Nolan Arenado (he has hit 42 & 41 in a season. Thin air? Bye ball). Bryce Harper (he hit 42 in 2015 – it’s a contract year)

Stolen bases (62.5) – I got the under on this one. 3 people have gone over 62.5 in the last decade - Dee Gordon in 14, Juan Pierre in 10, and Ellsbury in 09. If anyone comes close, it’ll be Dee Gordon.

Most Wins by any pitcher (20.5) – Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander (with that run support), Syndergaard, Sale, Kluber. I like my odds on this one.

Tier 1 World Series Bets:

Astros – 5.5 – 1

Dodgers – 5.5 – 1

Tier 2

Nationals 9 – 1

Red Sox – 10 – 1

Mets 25 – 1

Angels 25-1 (depending on the pitching situation – I really like the lineup)

Tier 3

Brewers 30-1

Rockies 45-1

Giants – 50 – 1

A.L. Wild Card – Red Sox over Angels

N.L. Wild Card – Mets over Brewers

A.L. Division 1 – Astros over Red Sox

A.L. Division 2 – Yankees over Indians

N.L. Division 1 – Mets over Nationals

N.L. Division 2 – Dodgers over Cubs

A.L. Championship – Astros over Yankees

N.L. Championship – Dodgers over Mets

World Series – Astros over Dodgers – don’t be surprised to see the same movie this October that we did last October.

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