We got fucked yesterday and end up going 0-3. I say we got fucked because Scherzer got postponed until today and the Braves made a pitching change late. Those kind of situations always make you scramble and that’s exactly what I did. I tried finding something else I liked to replace the Nats and Braves but there was nothing else out there that I was more confident in so I rolled with the Braves and we all paid the price for it. On to today and we need a bounce back day in a big way.
Rockies (Gray) (-120) - Jon gray has great numbers against this Giants lineup and has held them to a .200 avg in 30 at bats. Chris Stratton will be pitching for the Giants and the Rockies are 2-0 against him lifetime winning 4-3 and 12-3. They have a .368 avg & .579 slg% in 19 at bats against Stratton. Not a huge sample size here but enough to make me confident in the Rockies going up against Stratton and his 4.88 ERA this season.
Mariners (Paxton) (-1.5) - James Paxton took the loss last time out in his first start since throwing a no hitter against the Blue Jays. He took the L but only allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings pitched. Apparently he got food poisoning according to The Seattle Times but most likely he just drank himself to sleep after losing to the these Tigers last week. He will have his chance for revenge tonight and I think he will get it. Even after the L last week, he’s held this Tigers lineup to a .250 avg in 80 at bats. The Mariners have a whopping .320 avg in 50 at bats against against Mike Fiers so I think they will give Paxton the run support he needs tonight.
Braves (Newcomb) – The line isn’t posted on this one yet. Newcomb has been good this season. He pitched a gem against this same Marlins team less than a week ago and only allowed 1 hit in 6 innings pitched. The Braves have been even better this season and they are right at the top of the NL East with the Phillies. Not the two teams all the experts thought would be at the top of the NL East. The Braves have a good lineup from top to bottom and rank 3rd in runs scored per game. They will take on Jose Urena who comes into today’s game 0-6 on the season. They have a .307 avg against him in 78 at bats.
Here we go again, all the signs pointing to the Cavs winning at home in this one but will they? This Celtics defense and coaching is clearly too much for them to handle but there’s no way this young Celtics team takes a 3-0 lead against LeBron right? However, as far as the spread goes, 63% of the public is riding with the Celts tonight. I can’t gain any confidence in taking this Cavs team they way they have looked at (-6). Stat for you, Lebron is 6-0 in games when he is trailing 0-2 in a Eastern Conference playoff series. The books have this series favored to end in 7 games. Cavs moneyline is a nice parlay piece to have for today but the official bet on this game is a teaser.
Celtics (+10) / Over (201.5) – I know, the over has been tough to come by in this series thanks to the defense that the Celtics have been playing plus LeBron going bitch mode after he got hit by Tatum in Game 2. I think LeBron will be well rested after the THREE off days that the NBA gift wrapped him and he comes out for a big game. It would be an embarrassment for him to get swept right? Both teams score at the pace they did in the first quarter of Game 2 and we get the over. Celtics always find a way to hang around or make a strong second half comeback – (+10) seems like a pretty solid cushion to me.
We have been as cold as the ice when it comes to hockey so I’m taking a night off from it. It’s been such a mind fuck this week. I like the Caps but the Lightning have all the momentum. I may see how the first period plays out and then tweet out a live bet.
So I’m hearing that this race is going to be a two horse race between Justify and Good Magic. The problem is if you bet them both at the current odds, you break even so that’s not going to work for us. We have to go one or the other in this situation. Due to the “heel” issue that Justify had in the last week, I’m going to roll the dice on the upset today.
Good Magic Current = (+350)