6/17 VIP Picks
Happy Fathers Day to all of you! 3-3 yesterday and we were just one run away from a winning day. Maybe I jinxed DJ but he covered the -1.5 yesterday even though he finished the day +7. Let’s get to the picks for Fathers Day Sunday.
MLB:
Yankees (Sabathia) - The line hasn’t been posted yet but the Yanks are 15-5 in their last 20 games. They have covered the -1.5 in their 11 of those 15 wins. It’ll be a “bullpen” day for the Rays and this Yankees lineup should take advantage of that. Big CC will be starting for the Yanks who is 4-1 with a 3.27 earned run average.
Red Sox (ERod) (-130) - The Sox will be looking to avoid the sweep today when they send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. He’s had success against this Mariners lineup in the past and he’s held them to a .229 avg in 48 at bats. The matchup the Sox lineup have today has me Leaking a little bit. They have a .338 avg in 74 career at bats against Mike Leake. I’m looking for the Sox bats to have a big day backed by a good start from 8-1 ERod.
Dodgers / Giants Over (8.5) - These two teams have played each other eight times this season and the over under has split 4-4. Chris Stratton will start for the Giants and he’s allowed 11 runs in 11 innings against the Dodgers this season. The over has hit in all three games that he started against the Dodgers including a 15-6 loss the last time he faced them on April 28. Caleb Ferguson will start for the Dodgers and he’s had two tough Big League appearances this season. He comes in with a 9.53 earned run average and ESPN app doesn’t even have a picture for him. Take the over in this one.
Astros (-1.5) (McCullers) - The Astros have won ten games in a row and they’ve covered the -1.5 in eight of those games. Lance McCullers Jr. will start for them today and he’s held this Royals lineup to a .216 avg in 37 at bats. Brad Keller will start for the Royals and no one from the Astros lineup has ever faced him but this lineup is so hot it doesn’t matter who pitches. Astros are averaging 7.4 runs a game during their ten game winning streak. This. Should. Be. A. Lock.
PGA:
Dustin Johnson over Brooks Koepka - straight up is -155 or -1.5 is -120. If you’re scared of the -1.5 take it straight up. We already have DJ at 9-1 to win today and there’s no need to hedge our bet. We are doubling down on DJ today. Let’s go.
World Cup:
Germany 🇩🇪 - They are the defending champs and the favorite to win it this year AND the line reflects that. I feel like this is a safe bet to hit pretty hard. Mexico hasn’t beat Germany since 1985. Germany won all ten of their qualifying matches and only allowed 4 goals in those ten games. The moneyline is -230 to -240 across different sites and Bovada is offering -1 goal line at -145. PlaySports365 is offering -1.25 goal line paying even money. Most confidence is in the moneyline but I’m also confident in the goal line. These two teams squared off last year in the Confederations Cup Semi Finals and Germany won 4-1.
Brazil 🇧🇷- They are hungry this time around after being facialed by Germany in the Semi Finals of the last World Cup when they lost 7-1 in their own country. Since then, Brazil has moved on from their defensive minded coach Dunga. Their new coach known as Tite has a more aggressive approach. Brazil has played 21 games since Tite took over and they’ve only lost 1 of them, that’s a pretty tite stat. Same situation with the moneyline and goal line in this game as the Germany pick above. It’s totally worth it though.
You could also parlay Germany and Brazil moneylines and that pays even money.