VIP Picks 7/23


1-2-1 yesterday and around here, that’s considered a brutal day. Multiple rain delays in the Nats/Braves game definitely hurt our under bet. Pitchers warming up and then sitting in rain delays is always bad news for under bettors. What did hit? The jackhammer. 18-5 on MLB Jackhammers this season. I still had a winning day yesterday because I bet so much on the Sox at -1.5. That was free money. I’m feeling like we are due for one of those unbelievable runs and it starts tonight - to the picks! MLB: Red Sox (Porcello) (-170) - Why won’t I just take the run line in this one for better odds? Let’s not forget that Porcelblow gave up 8 earned in the first two innings in his last start. Everyone has an off night and that was clearly an off night. He should be able to bounce back against this Machadoless Orioles lineup tonight who he has held to a .250 avg in 212 at bats. The Sox will take on Kevin Gausman who they have already beat 6-2 this season where they hit two homeruns and put up 6 earned in 4.2 innings against him. 5 of the 9 guys in the Sox lineup have hit a homerun against Gausman in their career. Sox only scored 1 run in their first two games after the All-Star break but they showed us yesterday that the bats are back. They should score plenty of runs tonight and get the win, as long as Porcello doesn’t give up 8 earned in 2 innings again. I like our chances for the win in this one. Dodgers (Stripling) (-150) - The Dodgers will be in Philly tonight to take on the Phillies and Zach Eflin who they already beat 8-2 this season. They scored 5 earned runs in 4 innings against Eflin back on May 30th. They have a .341 career batting average against him in 41 at bats. Ross Stripling will start for the Dodgers and he hasn’t allowed 5 earned runs all season. He’s held this Phillies lineup to a .243 avg in 37 at bats. Good match up and not bad value for the Dodgers in this one. Padres / Mets Under (7) - deGrom was rained out last night so he should be more than rested when he takes the mound tonight against the Padres. He has held this Padres lineup to a .228 avg in 79 at bats. He also already pitched 7.1 scoreless innings against them earlier this season on April 27th in a 5-1 win. Let’s assume that deGrom is going to dominate this lineup per usual. That means we need Eric Lauer to give us a quality start and allow 6 runs. Too much to ask for? He’s allowed less than 6 runs in 14 of his 16 starts this season. The odds are in our favor for this one, under. Braves (Newcomb) (-116) - The Braves got rained out yesterday and I was bumming about that since they were a really good value underdog for us. There’s almost as much value on them today at -116 on the moneyline with Sean Newcomb pitching. He is 2-0 against the Marlins this season and has only allowed 1 earned run in 12 innings pitched. Newcomb has held the Marlins lineup to a .196 avg in 46 at bats. Jose Urena will start for the Marlins and he is 0-2 against the Braves this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. Advantage Braves, take the Braves. Yankees (Severino) (-1.5) - Severino has faced the Rays twice this season and the Yanks have covered the -1.5 in both of those games. Severino has held this Rays lineup to a .171 avg in 70 at bats. The Yanks have outscored the Rays 11-3 in Severino’s two starts against them this season. The Rays will put out one of their no name relief pitchers that they have start games for them - so dumb. The Yanks have never faced this “starter” but I don’t think they will have any issues putting up runs against the Rays pitchers that they will see in tonight’s game. Run line! J A C K H A M M E R!


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