VIP Picks 7/27



Bases loaded, bottom of the 9th, Jackie Bradley Jr at the plate, 2-1 game. Mitch Moreland is on the bench and is 6-10 lifetime against Fernando Rodney but doesn’t pinch hit…………...hmm. Sox leave bases loaded in the 1st and the 9th and lose 2-1 to cost us a historic jackhammer. Dodgers and Yanks were both easy money and the Sox should have been too but that’s baseball. Do I regret the pick? No. If we had the same matchups again today, I would take it again. The Sox had a .301 avg going into that game against Gibson but they proceeded to swing at sliders in the dirt all night. That one stings and I wanted it bad, the worst part is how close it was. It’s over and done with and it’s time to move on. You can’t dwell on the past in sportsbetting, especially with the lineup of games that we have tonight. It’s a bounce back Friday - let’s FUCKING go.

MLB:

Dodgers (Kershaw) (-160) - They came through for us last night with their hall of fame type numbers against Sanchez. They have another great matchup tonight against Foltynewicz - .346 avg & .538 slg% in 26 at bats. Clayton Kershaw will pitch for the Dodgers and I hear all the talk that he isn’t himself anymore. He’s had a rough start to the season and tough luck with injuries - he hasn’t been 3-5 since he was a 7th grader pitching for his varsity baseball team in high school. He has held this Braves lineup to a .232 avg in 56 at bats. I’ll take the Dodgers bats against Folynewicz who has allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last three starts against worse lineups than he will face tonight.

2 team moneyline parlay

Nationals (Scherzer) / Astros (Keuchel) (-107) - JACKHAMMER - Guy comments on Instagram last night - “You parlay moneyline favorites *eye roll emoji*. I make high percentage plays, that’s why I’m up over 30 units since the start of the MLB season. Fact. He later deleted his comment. These two matchups are GREAT matchups and pay just under even money. I’ll take that any day of the week. So let’s take a look - The Astros are hitting just under .300 against Gallardo in 121 at bats. Keuchel has been hot as of late and has allowed less than 2 earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has had 2 starts against the Rangers this season where he pitched 7 innings - he allowed 2 earned in one of those starts and 0 in the other. Pretty good. Game two - Scherzer has held this Marlins lineup to a .252 avg in 163 at bats. The Nats bats scored 5 earned in 5 innings against Pablo Lopez on July 5th. They had a .385 avg against him in that game so there’s good success there. Pablo Lopez also looks like he belongs in a Backyard Baseball video game, not the Major Leagues:


Cubs (Montgomery) (-105) - GOMERY, Montgomery! He has held this Cardinals lineup to a .236 avg in 55 at bats. That’s good but that’s not the reason why I’m all over this one. It’s the Cubs bats that have me drooling. They come into tonight’s matchup against Luke Weaver with a .462 avg & .662 slg%. Weaver has 3 starts against the Cubs this season - 4 innings 6 earned runs, 4 innings 4 earned runs, and 4 innings 3 earned runs. 12 innings 13 runs overall. I’ll take a lineup who is averaging a run per inning against the opposing starting pitcher.

Diamondbacks (Greinke) (-1.5) - The DBacks will take on Luis Perdomo who is 1-5 with a 6.99 earned run average this season. Poor Perdomo. The DBacks have always hit him hard and they come in with a .299 avg & .517 slg% in 87 at bats against him. Perdomo was 1-3 against the DBacks last season and he had two starts where he allowed 5 & 8 earned runs. Greinke will pitch for the DBacks and he has held this Padres lineup to a .206 avg in 126 at bats. This one seems like a lock.

Mariners (LeBlanc) (+125) - The Mariners will take on Andrew Heaney who they have already beat two times this season. They got to him pretty good in one of those games where they scored 5 earned in 3 innings and hit 3 homeruns. They have a lifetime .275 avg in 69 at bats. Wade LeBlanc is 2-0 against the Angels this season and he has held them to a .192 avg in 73 at bats. One word of warning is that the Mariners are 2-5 in road games where LeBlanc has started this season. Although two of those were against the top offenses in the league and one was in the thin air of Colorado. I just wanted to throw it out there. I’m still confident in him tonight with the matchup he has and the success he has had against this Angels lineup.

Something missing? No, I’m not taking the Red Sox and Chris Sale tonight. -360 on the moneyline and -180 on the run line is too pricey for me with this matchup. Lance Lynn already beat the Sox this season and they are only hitting .213 in 61 at bats against him. I’m staying away from this one, especially after they burnt us last night.

#VIP