8/13 VIP Picks

The last few days have been the coldest streak of the whole MLB season. We have had some really bad luck with teams blowing 2+ run leads in the 9th inning and teams allowing walk off walks. Bad luck but there’s no way to predict that bullshit from happening. It’s certainly time to turn this ship around and get back to smooth sailing. No parlays today just individual high percentage plays.

Indians (Clevinger) (-190) - The Indians will take on Homer Bailey tonight and he is just 1-9 this season with a 6.19 earned run average. The Reds have only won 1 of the 15 games that he has pitched this season so I really like our odds here. Mike Clevinger will pitch for the Indians and he has held this Reds lineup to a .231 avg in a small sample size of 26 at bats. I’ll play the juice on this one and I think this one has a 90% chance of winning.

Mets (deGrom) (+160) - I know, it takes balls to play an underdog like this when you are trying to snap a cold streak but I really like the Mets tonight. The best pitcher in baseball will be pitching for them in Jacob deGrom and he went 8 innings only allowing 2 earned runs against a healthy Yankees lineup earlier this season. Luis Severino has had a recent cold streak himself and he has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. In those four starts, he has allowed 3, 4, 6, and 6 earned runs. Those numbers make me think something is going on with him and it COULD BE FATIGUE as we get into the later part of the season. With 66% of the public pounding the Yankees moneyline at -175, I’m comfortable taking the best pitcher in baseball going up against a guy who has struggled and getting +160 odds for it.

Dodgers / Giants Under (7) - Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner will square off tonight and it will be a great pitchers duel like it always is. They are both good for 6-8 innings of 1-2 run ball. That’s got me feeling pretty confident in this under that is set at 7 right now. Bumgarner has held this Dodgers lineup to a .237 avg in 240 at bats. Kershaw has held the Giants to a .226 avg in 389 at bats. The numbers don’t lie in this one and both lineups have had plenty of chances against these starters and they continue to get dominated over and over again. Look for the trends to continue tonight.