9/1 VIP Picks
2-2 last night but it was a profitable night with the JACKHAMMER hitting. One VIP member hit for over $1k in Vegas.
Today is the first college football Saturday of the year and we have some good ones. For you guys who weren’t around last football season, here’s how it works. I typically give 3-5 picks against the spread then a few teasers I like and finally a heavy favorite moneyline parlay to get as close to even money odds as possible. Hit me up if you have any questions. Enjoy the day and let’s make some fucking money!
NCAAF:
Auburn (-2) - #6 Washington vs. #9 Auburn. What a matchup and it’s only week one of the season! I don’t think Washington should be ranked higher than Auburn to start the season and Auburn will prove me right this afternoon. The Tigers defense has 6 returning players and this defensive unit only allowed 18.5 points per game last season in the best conference in college football, the SEC. They lost Kerryon Johnson to the NFL but all of the starters on offense are returning players so this team is experience and ready to roll. Auburn beat two #1 teams last year. They beat up on Georgia 40-17 and beat Alabama 26-14. A loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship (that the eventual National Champion didn’t even play in - yeah, the SEC is THAT good) kept this team out of the College Football Playoff. This Auburn team is BACK and they are hungry to get into the College Football Playoff this year. I haven’t said much about Wasington yet right? Let’s keep it that way, I really just don’t think highly of them. Well respect College Football analyst Kirk Herbstreit predicted that this Washington team will go to the playoff this year. Why though? They had one game against a ranked opponent (#9 Penn State) outside of their conference the Pac-12 (SEC>>>>>>>>>Pac12) and they lost. Vegas agrees with me and even though Washington is ranked higher than Auburn to start the season, Auburn is the true favorite today and it is going to show. Go Tigers.
Michigan (-1) - #14 Michigan @ #12 Notre Dame - and it’s only week one! This one is going to be another great game to watch. The strength of this Michigan team is their defense, there’s no question about that - they allowed 18.8 points per game last season and that was good enough to make this a top 10 ranked defense. All 11 starters this year are returning from last year and I expect this defense to be a top 10 defense again this year. This defense is going to be a problem for Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush who had a completion percentage of 49.5% last season (weeeeeeak). Wimbush can make plays with his legs but he will need to improve his passing game if he wants to be effective against this BIG BLUE defense. One thing to note is that Wimbush lost his top two receivers from last season AND starting running back Josh Adams. I’m really liking the matchup from the defensive side of the ball for Michigan. Now, can they score points for us? The Michigan offense average 15 less points per game last year than they did two years ago. QB injuries and bad offensive line play played a big part in that. Shea Patterson who ranked as a top QB recruit in 2016 has transferred in from Ole Miss and he should solve the problem at QB the Wolverines had last season. Patterson threw for over 2200 yards and 17 touchdowns before he got injured last year. He is also mobile which will help out when the offensive line breaks down. Patterson has a good group around him even with top WR out due to a foot injury. I am taking Michigan to win this game and I don’t think it’s going to be as close as people think. GO BLUE!
Alabama (-24) - Not our first 24 point spread of the weekend but this time we will be taking the actual 2017 National Champions not UCF who gave themselves the title. Bama earned it. Alabama has won 5 of the last 9 National Championships and they are in the hunt every year. It will be no different this year and it all starts tonight when they open up at home against Louisville. First FYI fact for you in this one is that Nick Saban is 11-0 in season openers as head coach at Alabama (shocking right?) and second fact is that Bama hasn’t lost a non conference game since 2007. There’s obviously no question if they win this game but can they cover the 24 point spread? I think so. The big question about Bama is which QB will take the field to take the first snap and be named the official starting quarterback. I don’t think it matters and I think the duo is going to be fun to watch all year. Tua is the guy who will sling it around the field and Jalen will be the dual threat. It is going to keep defenses off balance but I think Tua will take the majority of the snaps. The Bama defense has returning players from last years National Championship team that held opponents to 12.8 points per game…………...yeah, they were the #1 defense last year. It’s tough to say how this Louisville offense will be because their top QB Lamar Jackson went to the NFL. Jawon Pass is the starting QB for the Cardinals this year and another fun fact for you is that Nick Saban recruited this guy hard but he chose Louisville over Bama. Let’s go inside Nick Saban’s brain during this game “Hey, you little fuck. You wanted to play for Louisville instead of Bama huh?” I am expecting Saban’s defense to bring all sorts of pressure on this young QB and it will be tough for the Cardinals to get any offense going. I’ll take Bama in a blowout tonight. ROLL DAMN TIDE.
2 team teaser
West Virginia (-4) / Cal (-1.5) - I’m really liking this one. West Virginia has one of the best passing attacks in the country and they will go to the air early and often. Tennessee is coming off of the worst season in school history. New coaching staff for Tennessee but it doesn’t matter. I got WVU covering (-4). Cal takes on North Carolina who has 13 players serving suspensions for selling school issued Nike shoes. Take advantage of the situation. Cal QB Ross Bowers has a great game against UNC last year when he thre for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns. I love these two teams in a teaser play today.
Heavy favorite moneyline parlay to get about even odds:
Boise State
Nebraska
Arizona State
Alabama
Texas
Oklahoma
(-115)
MLB:
Dodgers (Kershaw) (-170) - The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw on the hill tonight and he has always been good against this DBacks lineup - he’s held them to a .182 avg in 187 at bats so it’s a pretty big sample size. On the flip side, the Dodgers have been really good against DBacks starter Patrick Corbin - they have .303 avg in 152 at bats. The Dodgers have beat Corbin 2 out of 3 times that they have faced him this season. I like the Dodgers tonight backed by a good start from Kershaw.
Cardinals (Poncedeleon) (-130) - What a name for the Cardinals starter. He has only started a few games this season but one of them was against the Reds and he pitched 7 scoreless innings against them. The Cards were good to us last night and I think there is good value on them again tonight. They will take on Luis Castillo who is 2-2 against them this year but he has two starts where he allowed 3 earned in 5 innings and 5 earned in 6 innings. I am really starting to like this Cardinals team down the stretch as they look to clinch one of the Wild Card spots. I don’t think they will catch the Cubs for the NL Central but you never know. They are 4 games out right now.
Jays / Marlins Over (8) - These two just put up 11 runs last night and the matchup screams OVER in this one. Both teams have now had final scores in the teens in their last three games. The Jays have a .328 avg in 64 at bats against Chen. Not many Marlins have seen Estrada but the ones that have have been successful. I think this one goes over.