9/6 VIP Picks --- NFL is here!



1-2 last night thanks to the White Sox and Yanks sucking. Just a quick update for everyone though - we are still up 34 units on the MLB season - SOLID. Ok, now that our sorrows from last night have been addressed - IT IS FOOTBALL SEASON. Yes, it was already college football season but tonight it’s FOOTBALL season! N F L guys. The most bet on sport and KofSports best based on the percentages. 2016 - 124-76-5 (62%) 2017 - 166-90-5 (65%) 2018 - 175-75-2 (70%) - that’s the goal! Well the goal is 500-0 (100%) but we know that’s not going to happen. 70% is a realistic goal for us and it all starts tonight. GET HYPED! Send me pics/videos from where you guys are watching the game at a bar, in your mancave, or on your ipad from bed. It’s been a long time coming so let’s get right into our first NFL game of the year!

NFL:

Falcons (+1) @ Eagles - The way this works for you new guys is I break the game down first and then post my pick(s) at the end. It’s a little different than I do my other sports. So the Falcons opened up as +3.5 dogs but it has been bet down to +1. For you guys who don’t understand line movement yet, that means a lot of people have been betting on the Falcons. The line moves because the goal of the books is to get as close to even money on each so they profit off of the “vig” which is the fee to place bets. So why are people coming in on the Falcons? Let’s take a look. The Falcons went 11-5 last year and they didn’t have as much of a Superbowl hangover as I thought they would have after blowing a 28-3 lead in the Superbowl the year before. Where did the Falcons season end last year? Philadelphia. They lost 15-10 in the Divisional round of the playoffs. How close were they to winning that game? Ask Julio. Who remembers this play?


Nick Foles was named the starting QB for the Eagles this week as they say that Wentz hasn’t been cleared for contact from doctors yet. I feel like they kind of have to say that so this guy who went on a magical run and led them to a Superbowl victory. That happens in sports, guys go on magical runs and seem like they can’t be stopped (literally). However, it’s not like he was great in the playoff game against the Falcons last year and I would almost consider them getting lucky with Julio not making that catch. He makes that catch the Falcons take the lead with less than a minute to play. We never will know if Foles could have led a last minute drive for the win. But things didn’t go that way and here we are. In two games this preseason, Foles has a QB rating of 48.7 (sucks). Foles will also be without his top WR Alshon Jeffery who he targeted more than anyone else during the magical run last year and also WR Mack Hollins. I think the Eagles will lean on the running game to start this season up but this Falcons D ranked 9th in the league against the run last year. On the flip side, this Falcons team is healthy, locked, and loaded. Matt Ryan just got a major contract and he will go out tonight to start earning that. This Eagles defense ranked 25th against the pass last year and I think Matt Ryan goes out and picks them apart tonight - Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Devonte Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Austin Hooper - the Falcons are healthier and I think that will be the difference in this game. It’ll also be 80 degrees for the game tonight which is more of a temp that the Falcons are comfortable with rather than the 21 degrees that they dealt with in the playoff game last year. Keep your hands warm and make a play Julio. I got the Falcons.

Picks:

Falcons (+1)

Matt Ryan Over (1.5) touchdown passes (Even)

Julio Jones Over 6 receptions (-130) - Matt Ryan targeted him 16 times last year in the playoff game against the Eagles. You have to think they will have a similar game plan tonight.

MLB:

There are only 4 MLB games tonight and I don’t really like any of the matchups. I don’t want to force a pick and I know most of you will be focusing on the NFL game tonight - rightfully so.

FOOTBALL IS BACK - have some Carrie with your beer:


#VIP