9/15 VIP Picks



Picks go 3-2 last night and the highlight was the College Football Memphis / Georgia State OVER 61 where Memphis was just 3 points away from covering the over themselves. A win like that has me feeling GOOD for Saturday GAMEDAY! We have a lot of members of KofSports Nation out and about at the games today and they will be sending videos from the games and the tailgates. Let’s have ourselves a big Saturday boys!

NCAAF:

Straight “Against the spread”

Miami (-12) - Miami lost their season opener to LSU but they had the definition of a bounce back game in week 2 when they beat Savannah State 77-0. They will be playing their first real road game this season today in Toledo but I don’t think that is going to be much of a factor. These two teams squared off last year and Toledo took a16-10 lead into halftime before falling apart and losing 52-30. There’s no question that Toledo has some playmakers but I just don’t see them as being on the same level as this Miami team and I expect Miami to cover this double digit spread today. This one kicks off at noon EST so it’s an early game and this one should get our day started off on the right foot.

Oklahoma (-18.5) - Oklahoma will visit Iowa State today who is the only team that was able to beat them in the regular season last year in a 38-31 (fixed game feel) shocker of a game. The returning players will be out here looking for reveeeeenge and I think that they will get it. Even with Heisman Trophy Winner QB Baker Mayfield moving on to the NFL from last year, the Sooners are averaging 56 points per game through their first two contests of the year. Oklahoma leading rusher Rodney Anderson suffered a season ending injury but they have depth at the running back position and I don’t see that causing any problems for them today. Iowa State has only played one game this season and they were only able to put up 3 points in a 13-3 loss against Iowa. The only reason they were able to stay in that game is because Iowa has a run first offense and both teams basically chewed clock in that game and tried to outlast the other. Oklahoma isn’t going to play fucking patty cakes today, they are going to Iowa State to lay an ABSOLUTE beating and I believe that they will blow them away today.

Georgia (-33) - The Dawgs are coming off of an impressive 41-17 blowout win against #24 South Carolina which was their first “test” of the season if you want to call it that. They won 45-0 against Austin Peay in Week 1. Middle Tennessee is coming off of a 61-37 win against UT Martin, Lol. They lost 35-7 against SEC Vanderbilt in Week 1 and this Georgia team will be a MUCH tougher SEC opponent than Vandy was for Middle Tennessee. I am expecting Georgia to attack through the air today after seeing how the MT passing defense has been this year - they allowed Vandy QB to average 17 yards per completion in Week 1 and allowed UT Martin QB Dresser Winn to through for 355 yards and four touchdowns. If Vandy held this MT offense to 7 points in Week 1, anything other than a shutout would be a disappointment for the Dawgs today. I’m really confident that Georgia will absolutely shut this offense down today and with the sample size of the MT passing defense, I think we can expect a lot of points from Georgia today.

Alabama (-23) - Last week I was hesitant to take Bama and they were up 40-0 at halftime. Roll. Damn. Tide. They will be on the road tonight against an Ole Miss team who is 2-0 and they claim they “WANT BAMA.” It’s funny that everyone WANTS BAMA until they actually get them. First thing I’ll say is that Ole Miss allowed 41 points and 629 total yards to a Southern Illinois team last week so BAMA will not have any problem scoring tonight. The Ole Miss offense has looked good and their offensive line is a strength of theirs with so much experience but this BAMA defense and front seven is a completely different animal who hasn’t allowed more than 2 touchdowns in either of their first two games against Louisville and Arkansas State. Ole Miss has a better offense than both of those two teams but I don’t see them hanging around tonight. ROLL. DAMN. TIDE.

Teasers: (play in groups of 2) - in order of confidence:

Missouri (-0.5) - teasing this one down to a pick em is gold. Don’t let the 35-3 loss Mizz suffered to Purdue fool you from last year. These teams are headed in opposite directions. The Purdue defense has struggled in their first two games of the season and this Mizz offense will be the best one they have faced all year. I can see this one getting out of hand early

Boise State / Oklahoma State Over (60.5) - Both teams are averaging over 55 points through their first two games this season. I don’t think they will each put up 55 today but I do think that they will both put up 30+ each which will be enough to hit the teased over.

Auburn (-4) - Both teams come in 2-0 and this one projects to be a good game but I will take Auburn by -4 at home - I feel that they are a level above LSU.

TCU (+19.5) - Both TCU and OSU have rolled in their first two games of the season. Tonight’s matchup should be a good one and teasing TCU up to (+19.5) in their home state (game is at AT&T Stadium) makes me feel comfortable. The public is all over OSU to cover the spread so I feel even better about adding another TD to that. Big game from Shawn Robinson and this TCU forces a few turnovers to keep them in this game and cover the teaser for us.

Big Moneyline Parlay to get EVEN odds:

Bama / Florida / Auburn / Missouri (-103)

MLB:

Cubs (Lester) (-210) - Remember yesterday when I said to pay the juice on the moneyline instead of taking the run line? Yeah, it was a big moneyline but we won. If we went for the “Better payout” odds of the run line -1.5, we would have lost. The Cubbies will take on Cody Reed of the Reds today who they have a .400 avg & .911 slg% against in a decent sample size of 45 at bats. Jon Lester will start for the Cubs and he has had pretty good success against everyone in the Reds lineup in the past except Billy Hamilton and Eugenio Suarez. Two out of the nine guys in the lineup having success against him isn’t going to scare me and I will roll with the Cubs in a late Saturday afternoon game at Wrigley Field.

Pirates / Brewers Over (8.5) - Nova and Davies must start for action in this one. Both lineups have great numbers against the opposing starting pitchers in this one and I am expecting a lot of runs to be scored. The Brewers come in with a .306 avg in 134 at bats against Ivan nova and the Pirates come in with a .341 avg in 85 at bats against Zach Davies. This one has over written all over it!

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