1-1 last night because there was no action on the Red Sox bet due to the fact that they put a spring training lineup on the field in game two of the double header after winning 19-3 in game one. Thursday Night Football is back tonight and with that, I am announcing that we are done betting on baseball until the playoffs. At this point, every playoff spot is locked in except the NL West/2nd Wild Card spot. Betting on baseball games from now until Sunday is basically like betting on a spring training game because teams have nothing to play for. Not a good idea so we are officially done betting on baseball until Tuesday when we get the first Wild Card game. We finished the season at 59% with a record of 346-239. I’m blaming the 1% below 60 on September where we didn’t bet as much baseball due to football and the last two weeks have been tough with teams not being as motivated as they were earlier in the season. We still had winning months each month of the MLB season:
April - 53-36
May - 60-34
June - 65-52
July - 63-47
August - 67-42
September - 28-23
Also, if you bet 1 unit on all MLB plays and doubled down on all MLB JACKHAMMERS (which finished 29-12 (70%) you finished the season up 33 units. So if your unit size is $100 you profited $3,300 and if your unit size is $1,000 you profited $33,000. A third straight winning MLB season for KofSports and we are ready for the Postseason!
Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football Picks:
Vikings @ Rams - Let’s start off by taking a look at where the money is at in this game. 59% of the public bets against the spread are on the Rams and rightfully so. Now, let’s look at the Thursday Night games from the first three weeks where the money was at and the results:
Week 1 - 54% on the Falcons - Eagles won 18-12
Week 2 - 66% on the Ravens -1 - Bengals won 34-23
Week 3 - 61% on the Browns -3 - Browns won 21-17
So the books have cleaned up on two of the three Thursday Night games especially on that Ravens game that everyone and their brother thought was a lock coming off of a 47-3 win against the Bills. Well now, we have the Vikings coming off of a 27-6 loss against that same Bills team who we all can agree still sucks. If the Rams don’t cover in this game, I will really believe that games are fixed. The Rams have absolutely dominated their first three opponents 33-13, 34-0, and 35-23 in a game that wasn’t that close. I know that they haven’t played anyone that great but the Chargers beat up on that same Bills team that the Vikings just got dominated by (at home). The Vikings are 2-1 but that loss last week against the Bills really has me changing my tune on what I think of them this season. They were -2000 on the moneyline!! Here’s a nice stat for you guys too - teams who travel across two time zones to play a Thursday Night game after a Sunday game are 0-12-1 against the spread since the 90s. Now let’s dive into the matchup a little more - the Rams have had a balanced offense so far this season and they rank 4th in passing and 6th in rushing. The Vikings defense ranks 9th against the pass and 14th against the run. They also haven’t seen a running back on the level of Todd Gurley so I am expecting him to have a big game. The Rams defense ranks 6th against the pass and 9th against the run. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Rams will be without Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters tonight (their top two corners). I think there is going to be a lot more offense in this game than people think. The Vikings only scored 6 points last week against the Bills but they should be able to get going tonight with the top two corners out. I am confident enough in this Rams offense to win in a shootout and that’s exactly what I expect to happen tonight.
Teaser - Rams (-1) / Over (43.5)
Against the Spread - Rams (-7)
Miami (-17.5) - Miami has been playing really good football since their season opening loss to LSU who is now ranked #5 in the country. They haven’t been up much competition other than that but regardless, they are winning the games they should be winning. Miami ranks second in the nation in total defense holding opponents to just 18.5 points per game. It’s also looking like Miami will be starting N’Kosi Perry at quarterback who looked great when he took over for Malik Rosier last week and gave this offense more energy. North Carolina is 1-2 and come in off of a hard fought 38-35 win against Pittsburgh (who isn’t very good and lost 51-6 in their only game against a ranked opponent this season). North Carolina simply doesn’t have the playmakers on either side of the ball to compete with Miami. If North Carolina couldn’t cover 17.5 on the road against an East Carolina team, I don’t think they stand a chance tonight on the road against Miami. I have Miami winning this game BIG.
This one doesn’t have the best odds on the moneyline (-232) but you can absolutely HAMMER this one because it’s free money.