9/30 VIP Picks



8-3 yesterday for a HUGE Saturday just what we needed! Let’s keep it rolling into NFL Sunday Week 4 then Monday Night Football then playoff baseball, NHL regular season starts up, more football, more playoff baseball, then before you know it NBA. WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE! KOOOOOFSPORTS!

NFL Sunday Week 4

NFL:

Straight “against the spread” / Moneyline

Saints (-3) - The spread in this one is -3.5 but we are buying half a point to get it at -3 today. The Saints come in at 2-1 and they have scored at will in 2 of their 3 games this season scoring 40+ twice. The Giants are coming off of a win against the Texans but they are just 1-2 this season and their offense has struggled. I look at this one as the Giants having a really tough time keeping up with this Saints offense. The Saints come in ranked 5th in passing offense and I think they will run their up tempo offense today. You won’t hear me bragging or saying anything nice about this Saints defense that has given up 48 and 37 points in two different games so far this season but again, I don’t see the Giants offense being able to keep up with the Saints and I have the Saints covering -3 today. Buy the half point to play it safe though.

Falcons (-3.5) - The Falcons let us down last week because they couldn’t get a stop. This game stood out to me early in the week when I saw it because the Bengals are coming off of a 31-21 loss against the same Carolina Panthers team that the Falcons already beat 31-24 this year. This Bengals offense isn’t as good as the Saints offense so I’m not overly concerned about the Falcons defense today. The Bengals started the season 2-0 against two average opponents but came back to reality after losing to the Panthers last week. The Falcons passing offense comes in ranked 11th and they will take advantage of the Bengals 23rd ranked passing defense. After scoring 37 at home last week, I expect the Falcons offense to be clicking again at home today and that will be enough to cover the -4.

3 team moneyline parlay:

Packers / Chargers / Jaguars (-109) - this one is paying better odds than a teaser and we just need these three big favorites to win their games straight up. I’ll take it.

Teasers:

Jaguars (-1.5)

Chargers (-4)

Lions (+9)

Browns (+9)

Patriots / Dolphins Over (43.5)

Sunday Night Football Teaser Ravens (+9) / Over (45)

Only 3 of the last 10 between the Ravens and Steelers have been decided by more than 7 points so I am expecting this one to be a close one. Close enough for the Ravens to cover +9 because I think they have a good chance to win this game outright. The average total score between these two teams in their last 10 meetings is 47 so I like the teased over at 45 in this one. Both of these offenses have been averaging about 30 points per game this year so there should be some offense displayed tonight. Teasing the Ravens up to +9 and the over to 45 makes me feel pretty comfortable with this Sunday Night play to close out the day on a high note.

Fanduel:

QB:

Phillip Rivers - taking on a 49ers defense who got carved up by Pat Mahomes last week and ranks 27th against the pass this season.

Matt Ryan - You saw above that Matt Ryan will be up against the 23rd ranked passing defense in the Bengals and he is coming off of a HUGE week. This Falcons offense should pick up right where they left off last week.

RB:

Ezekiel Elliot - he will be going agiainst the Lions defense that ranks dead last against the run. He should be eating today.

Kenyan Drake - another guy going up against a terrible defense when he faces the Patriots today who have allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game so far this season. I also like Drake to catch some passes out of the backfield and make things happen against this defense who can’t stop a nose bleed.

WR:

Calvin Ridley - low price option and he showed last week that he can be a reliable target for Matt Ryan and caught 3 touchdown passes.

Keenan Allen - I like pairing Allen with Rivers today when they take on a bad 49ers defense - 27th against the pass.

Jarvis Landry - It’s Baker time and I think he will look to Landry a lot today. A good number that stands out to me is that Landry had 15 targets in the Browns last game against the Jets. They have had extra time to prepare for this one and get Baker up to speed on what is now his offense. They will be up against a Raiders defense who ranks 18th against the pass so I’m comfortable with that. He should get a lot of targets today.

TE:

GRONK - It’s now or never for the Pats and for them to compete in this game, Brady will need to get Gronk more involved. This Dolphins pass defense ranks 29th in the league so they will have a tough time covering Gronk. I think Gronk has a big day.

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