MLB Postseason



The MLB Postseason will kick off tonight with the National League Wild Card game then the American League Wild Card game will be played tomorrow night. So, let’s take a look at the odds for each team and the strengths/weaknesses of them.

Odds in order of current Vegas listing:

Boston Red Sox (17/5)

Strengths:

  • 5.41 runs scored per game

  • Ability to rally and comeback. This team had comebacks all year long and that is a strength for them in the playoffs.

  • Home Field Advantage through the playoffs and this team tears the cover off the ball at home

  • 16-4 vs National League if they can get to the World Series.

Weaknesses:

  • Bullpen.

  • Matt Barnes, sucks.

  • Joe Kelly, sucks.

  • Is Chris Sale healthy?

  • 3-4 vs Cleveland. 3-4 vs Houston.

Summary:

Typically you can’t survive without a reliable bullpen in the playoffs. The bullpen will eventually cost this team. UNLESS the offense continues to be as good as they were all season long. There were countless games where this team seemed down and out and then they would score 5+ runs in the 7th or 8th inning. This offense is one of the best lineups ever when they are clicking. However, playoff baseball is typically good pitching beating good hitting. This offense will have to be spectacular in order to build leads that the bullpen can’t blow. I do think they are capable of it. Confidence in the Sox to win the World Series 6/10.

Houston Astros (17/5)

Strengths:

  • 4.92 runs scored per game

  • #1 ranked bullpen earned run average at 3.03

  • #1 ranked starting pitching earned run average at 3.16

  • When they were healthy, they only lost back to back games 6 times this year

Weaknesses:

  • 9 of their 11 pitchers are righties which doesn’t allow them to play matchups as much

  • Defending World Series Champs (yes, this is a weakness not a strength.)

Summary:

This team has the #1 ranked starting pitching staff and #1 ranked bullpen when it comes to earned run average. Their offense ranked 6th in runs scored per game and they had multiple key pieces miss time throughout the season. This team is healthy and this team is ready to defend the crown. Confidence in the Astros winning the World Series - 8/10.

Los Angeles Dodgers (6/1)

Strengths:

  • 4.93 runs scored per game

  • #2 Ranked overall earned run average starters/bullpen combined

  • Depth 1-9 and on the bench. They are built for the postseason

Weaknesses:

  • Tough to find one but their bullpen ranks #8 in earned run average, they did struggle at times this year

  • 20 years since last World Series Victory

  • Yasiel Puig has guaranteed that they will win the World Series this year

Summary:

Yes, I think the Dodgers will be the team representing the National League in the World Series they have the lineup, they have the pitching, they have the bench guys who can make an impact - they are built for the playoffs. You are playing 6-1 odds on them beating whoever comes out of the American League - stay tuned. Confidence in Dodgers winning the World Series - 7/10.

Cleveland Indians (10/1)

Strengths:

  • 5.05 runs scored per game

  • Terry Francona

  • Starting pitching (3rd ranked in earned run average 3.39)

  • Depth

Weaknesses:

  • Bullpen ranked 25th in earned run average this year

  • Played in a weak and I mean WEAK division this season and has second lowest win total of all the teams in the playoffs.

Summary:

Mid season trade to add Josh Donaldson to this lineup is going to make it very tough for opposing pitchers this October. I’m confident in Francona to out-manage any other manager in the playoffs. The bullpen era wasn’t very good in the regular season but you will see a heavy dose of Miller, Hand, and Allen in the postseason and all three of those guys are dominant. Confidence in Indians winning the World Series - 9/10. 10-1 odds looks great and the Cleveland Indians are my 2018 World Series pick!

So why write the rest of the article? I’ll finish so you guys can see the odds and stats for every team.

New York Yankees (11/1)

Strengths:

  • 5.25 runs scored per game

  • Good offense / small ballpark

  • Third highest win total of all playoff teams and they dealt with injuries

Weaknesses:

  • Starting pitching - I don’t trust them. Severino shit his pants in the playoffs last year

  • Aaron Boone as a manager

Summary:

They haven’t named their starter for the one game playoff tomorrow but they better not take the A’s lightly. Obviously the Yanks are a threat with the lineup that they have and they got stronger by adding some pieces as the season went on. However, I don’t think their starting pitching will be good enough to win it all. Confidence in Yankees winning the World Series - 3/10. I see an early exit on the horizon for them.

Atlanta Braves (12/1)

Strengths:

  • 4.69 runs score per game

  • 4th ranked starting pitching earned run average at 3.50

Weaknesses:

  • A lot of young players and the pressure of the postseason may get to them.

  • 17th ranked bullpen earned run average at 4.15

Summary:

What a season from the Braves and it was great for them to come out of no where and win the NL East. Everyone thought the Nationals or Mets would run away from everyone else in the division. The Braves showed up a year or two early but I still think they will need to use this postseason as an experience builder for their young guns and come back as a true contender next season. Confidence in Braves winning the World Series - 1/10.

Chicago Cubs (15/1)

Strengths:

  • 4.67 runs scored per game

  • 2nd ranked bullpen earned run average at 3.35

  • 10th ranked starting pitching earned run average at 3.84

Weaknesses:

  • Their pitching has been inconsistent yet they still won 95 games

Summary:

As inconsistent as the pitching was this season, they still won 95 games which is great. However, any sort of let down from the starting pitching in a playoff series (or one game) would be disastrous for them. As much as I like this lineup, they have shown that they can struggle. Confidence in Cubs winning the World Series - 2/10.

Oakland Athletics (18/1)

Strengths:

  • 5.02 runs scored per game

  • One of the hottest teams in the second half of the season

  • 3rd ranked bullpen earned run average at 3.37

  • Us against the world attitude

Weaknesses:

  • Starting pitching ranked 17th earned run average at 4.17

Summary:

It’s real life Moneyball. The way the A’s have come together as a team and played together this season makes it seem like they are one of those Cinderella teams where things just go their way. But I’m a realist and I go off of the numbers, I could see the A’s getting by the Yanks in the Wild Card game but I don’t see them running through the Red Sox, Astros, or Indians. Confidence in the A’s to win the World Series- 2/10

Colorado Rockies (20/1)

Strengths:

  • 4.79 runs scored per game (thin air at home bro)

Weaknesses:

  • I don’t think they have the pitching to compete in a playoff series other than Kyle Freeland.

Summary:

It would take a lot of magic for the Rockies to win the World Series, don’t count on it and don’t bet on it. Confidence in Rockies winning the World Series - 1/10.

So how do you bet it?

1 unit to win 10 units on the Cleveland Indians

1 unit to win 3.5 units on the Houston Astros

1unit to win 6 units on the Los Angeles Dodgers

3 total units bet

Potential Results:

Indians win - you profit 8 units

Astros win - you profit .5 unit (however if they play the Dodgers in the World Series you can hedge your Dodgers 6-1 bet to maximize your profits.)

Dodgers win - you profit 4 units (unless you do the whole hedge bet on Astros.)

The Oakland A’s were the most profitable team to bet on this season. If you put $100 on them every game, you would be up $2,800. If you bet $100 on every KofSports VIP pick this season and double down on JACKHAMMERS, you would be up $3,300. So KofSports was 5 units more profitable than the most profitable team in baseball this year. Should I have some Team KofSports jerseys printed?

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