4-0 4-0 4-0 4-0. We go 4-0 last night and $100 on every pick profited $318. $1,000 on every pick profited $3,180! Huge day yesterday but I am feeling like today will be even BIGGER! We have NCAAF, we have MLB, and we have NHL! Happy Saturday everyone and enjoy the games! #KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFSPORTS
LSU (-2.5) - The Florida Gators are coming off of a big win against Mississippi State but that’s the only “good” win they have on the season if you ask me. Some may say that the Tennessee win was a “good” win but Tennessee has been outscored by 78 points in three games against Top 25 opponents. LSU has already beat two Top 10 teams this season at the time of the game when they beat Miami 33-17 and Auburn 22-21. That Auburn win on the road is LSU’s best win of the year and they have dominated the cupcake teams that they have played. Florida is no cupcake but they also aren’t Auburn. I am expecting good defense to be played by both sides in this game but the advantage goes to LSU in this kind of game because they have scored 20+ in all of their games even against an Auburn defense that ranks #5 in points allowed per game this season. GEEAUUUUXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX TIGERS.
Miami (-14) - Trivia Saturday - how has Florida State done against teams with good defenses this year? NOT GREAT! They scored 3 points against Virginia Tech and 7 points against Syracuse. They will be going on the road today to play against Miami who has rolled four straight double digit wins. The Florida State offensive line will struggle with the pressure from the Miami front seven and that will lead to turnovers. Miami should be able to take advantage of these turnovers and they should be able to run away with this one. DA U!
Auburn (-3.5) - Here is a gift from the bookmakers. Mississippi State is coming off of two straight losses to SEC opponents (Kentucky and Florida). Kentucky and Florida are good teams but they are not Auburn! Auburn has one loss on the season and it was by one point to a very good LSU team that is currently ranked #5 in the country. Other than that battle, Auburn has taken care of business all season including a win against Washington in week one who a lot of experts were predicting to win the championship….LOL. This one will be a defensive battle as both Miss State and Auburn both rank in the top 15 in points allowed per game. I like Auburn to come away with the victory and the cover in this game since Miss State could cover +4 against Florida last week or Kentucky the week before. GO TIGERS!
Syracuse (-3) - Spread is -3.5 in this one but I’m telling you to buy the half a point to play it safe. Pitt comes into this one just 2-3 and they are coming off of an absolute beat down from UCF 45-14. Syracuse has been playing good this year and they come in 4-1. They are coming off of a tough loss 27-23 against Clemson (the #3 team in the country). They played great last week and some may worry that this might be a hangover game for them but I don’t think so. UCF QB McKenzie Milton threw for 4 touchdowns and 328 yards while running for 51 more yards against this Pitt defense last week. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is another dual threat QB and I think he will have similar success against this PItt D today. One thing that I know you don’t know about unless you’re a Pitt fan is that they are not a disciplined football team and penalties have hurt them all year - they average 76 penalty yards per game. Penalties add up and give the other team more opportunities, I think Syracuse will take advantage of that today. Syracuse is just a better team in my eyes and I’m only buying the half a point because they are on the road but in the end I really don’t think the half a point will matter. Go Orange!
Thank you for everyone who voted yesterday on if there was a problem with the teasers or not, 90% of you voted that there was no problem at all. Great comments in the open ended suggestion box too! I did get some feedback that I will use to make things better. What I am going to do going forward is post my top three teaser combinations but then I’m also going to list teaser selections in order of confidence. It sounds like that will work for everyone. Today, I actually only like two teaser selections because most of the games above that are my most confident aren’t worth teasing. You will see the new format tomorrow but for today, here’s the teaser:
Notre Dame (-1) / West Virginia / Kansas OVER (56) - Notre Dame impressed me last week with the big win over Stanford. They are undefeated this season and have taken care of two Top 15 teams. I like them to take care of business against #24 Virginia Tech tonight. West Virginia could cover the teased over themselves at 56, the closest they have come is 52 this season. They scored 28 in the first quarter last week and then the offense slowed down a bit but we still hit our over in that game! We tease it to 56 in this one and West Virginia should score in the 40s no problem so we just need two scores from Kansas and after seeing WVU defense give up 34 to Texas Tech and their backup QB last week, I don’t think it should be an issue for Kansas to score two touchdowns for us today.
Astros (Cole) (-160) - I didn’t put a pick out for the Indians/Astros game yesterday because it really seemed like a toss up but the Astros proved that they are the superior team. I like their matchup a lot today so let’s take a look. Carlos Carrasco will start for the Indians and this Astros lineup that scored 7 runs yesterday is hitting just under .300 against him in a good sample size of 134 career at bats. Also, 5 different Astros have hit a homerun off of Carrasco. Gerrit Cole will pitch for the Stros and he has held this Indians lineup to a .235 avg in 51 career at bats. Give me the Astros in this one and they will take a commanding lead on this series.
Yankees / Red Sox Over 9 - JACKHAMMER - At first glance, I was thinking Yankees ML would be the JACKHAMMER based on how hard they hit Price but then looking at Tanaka’s starts against the Sox this year I got a little nervous and it became clear to me that the OVER is the play in this game. Let’s take a closer look. The Yankees lineup has a .308 avg & .557 slg% in 221 career at bats against Price. They hit him hard and 221 at bats is an enormous sample size so it’s proof that there’s something in his head when he pitches against the Yankees. Here are a few starts for him this year against the Yanks - April 11 - 4 earned runs in 1 inning pitched. July 1 - 8 earned runs (built a snowman in July) in 3.1 innings pitched. Aug 5 - 2 earned runs in 6 innings. Give credit when it’s due, this was a good start and we thought he got over the hump...BUT THEN. Sep 19 - 6 runs in 5.1 innings “OH NO, HE SUCKS AGAIN!” Oh yeah, and in all of those starts combined he gave up 9 homeruns to this Yanks lineup this season. Price is going to get lit up tonight. Now let’s take a look at Tanaka’s starts against the Sox this season - April 11 - 6 earned runs in 5 innings pitched. May 9 - 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Aug 5 - 1 earned run in 4.2 innings. Sep 20 - 5 earned runs in 4 innings. Similar to Price, he had one good start against the Sox this year but he was pounded in the others. Tanaka allowed 6 homeruns to this Sox lineup this year. I like the over in this one and I don’t think tonight will be your typical low scoring playoff game. Both teams will be swinging away on a Saturday Night in Fenway - OVER!
Ducks (-115) - #BetAgainstTheCoyotes
Penguins ML / Maple Leafs ML (-111) - Great odds for two teams that are much better teams than their opponents.