10/8 VIP Picks



MLB:

Astros (Keuchel) (+113) - I view this one similar to the Brewers game yesterday. Everyone is thinking the Indians are home and there’s no way they will get swept. Well, the numbers in this matchup are telling me the opposite and they are telling me that the Astros will win this game today to complete the sweep. The Astros starting lineup comes in with a .339 avg in 56 at bats against Mike Clevinger! .339! The Astros faced Clevinger twice this season and beat him in back to back starts on May 18th and May 24th. They outscored the Indians 12-3 in those two games with 8 of the runs coming off of Clevinger. Keuchel pitched against the Indians twice this year and he allowed 2 and 4 runs in those starts. Another way to paint the picture of how the Stros have dominated the Tribe is to look at their head to head matchups this year. This season (including the first two playoff games), the Astros have outscored the Indians by 23 runs (55-32). They are the better team and they will close the series out today. +113 on the moneyline for a matchup like this? I know it’s a holiday today but get the JACKHAMMER out and get to work!

Dodgers (Hill) (-143) - We didn’t bet on last night’s game since there wasn’t much history on either side of the matchup. Good game for the Braves but the way that game played out after the almost blew a 5-0 lead shows how the Dodgers are a level above them. Rich Hill will get the start today and he has held this Braves lineup to a .217 avg in 58 at bats. The Dodgers starting lineup will take on Mike Foltynewicz and I am happy to say that this will be the last time that I have to type out his fucking last name this year! The Dodgers starting lineup comes in with a .306 avg in 49 career at bats against Folty. Grandal, Muncy, and Pederson all have taken him deep. Give me the Dodgers to close this thing out and move on.

Red Sox (Eovaldi) (+160) - You guys saw I went to the game Friday night and I want to open up this write up by saying that this is not a homer pick. You guys know that I look at the matchups and break things down based on what is most likely to happen based on past results, trends, ect. Let’s take a look at this one. The Red Sox traded for Nathan Eovaldi in July. Since then, he has made 3 appearances against the Yankees and he has pitched 16 total innings without allowing an earned run. That’s pretty impressive against this Yanks lineup. He has held them to a .253 avg in 75 career at bats and even more impressive is that he has only allowed 1 homerun (to Gregorius). Now, I know there’s all the hype on Severino because he went 3-2 against the Sox this season but let’s take a closer look at those games. May 8th Yanks win 3-2 - Severino went 6 innings allowing 2 runs. However, Drew Pomeranz pitched for the Sox and he only threw first pitch strikes to 12 of the 24 hitters he faced, that means he was pitching behind in the count which led to two homeruns for Stanton. His other two wins came on July 1st and September 19 where the Yankess outscored the Sox 21-2 in those games combined. NEWS FLASH - David Price started both of those games for the Sox and we all know that the Yankees own him. He started Saturday so luckily he won’t be pitching tonight. Severino’s two losses came when he pitched against Sale on April 10th and against Porcello on August 3rd. Sevy allowed 9 earned runs in 10.2 innings in those two starts combined. The Red Sox outscored the Yanks 18-2 in those games. So what’s my point? Severino’s 3 wins came thanks to being able to pitch with a lead because he was pitching against Pomeranz and Price in those games. When he isn’t comfortable with a lead, the Red Sox have hit him pretty good. Eovaldi has been fantastic against the Yanks this season and I don’t think Severino will have a comfortable lead at any point in this game. +160 is great value for this matchup and I’m taking the Sox tonight. Oh yeah, and 58% of the public is betting the Yanks.

NFL:

Teasers:

Saints (0) / Over (46) - Big night tonight in the Big Easy as Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards to break Peyton Manning’s all time passing record. He has thrown for more than 201 yards in every game this season. The one thing that does jump out is that the Redskins defense currently ranks #1 in passing yards allowed per game at 187. Insert teaser here. Aaron Rodgers was hurt when they played him and Sam Bradford has lost his starting job since they played him. A healthy Brees in his own stadium will be their biggest test of the season. The Saints high powered offense that is averaging 34 points a game will get Mark Ingram back tonight as well. The Redskins are coming off of a bye week so they have had an extra week to prepare for this game. They beat the Packers that don’t look to be too good this season and also the Cardinals. Their one loss came against the Colts that, well, they don’t look too good either. I don’t think there’s any chance the Saints lose this game at home tonight. We need 24 points a side to hit the teased over and I don’t think we will have any problem getting that. WHO DAT WHO DAT WHO DAT SAID GON BEAT DEM SAINTS!?


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