10/12 VIP Picks
I got a little spooked at first when I saw the line movement on the Eagles / Giants game last night, that’s why I put an update around 5 pm est to roll with the moneyline. However, once I saw that the books were claiming the percentage of public money on the Eagles went from 55% to 62% I knew it was a bluff and I should have made the Eagles a jackhammer. That made no sense at all and I knew it. If the public money increased on a team, the spread would increase as well. Example - 55% of public money on Eagles increased to 62% the spread should have moved from -3 to -5 not -3 to -1. Our NCAA over didn’t go like we would have wanted and we go 1-1-1 in NHL for the medicorest of night’s after the Sharks gagged and lost in OT and the Caps got shut out after scoring 17 goals in their first three games. I do know that line moved to 6.5 later in the day so I’ll acknowledge that some of you took the L on that. Make sure you get on the blog earlier in the day going forward so you get your bets in before the line changes! Baseball is back tonight and you are all aware of the current streak - 11-2 in playoffs! Happy Friday.
MLB:
Dodgers / Brewers Under (7.5) - JACKHAMMER -
Let’s start this one off by looking at the recent games, out of the Dodgers playoff games and the NL West tiebreaker, 3 of 5 went under 7.5 including the game Clayton Kershaw pitched where he went 8 scoreless innings. On the flip side all 4 of the Brewers playoff games and NL Central tiebreaker game have gone under 7.5. Both of these starting pitchers have good numbers against the opposing starting lineups. Clayton Kershaw has held this Brewers lineup to a .260 avg in 96 at bats. The last time he pitched against the Brewers was last season on June 2 where he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 earned run, the Dodgers won that game 2-1. Gio Gonzalez has held this Dodgers lineup to a .210 avg in 100 at bats. The last time he pitched against the Dodgers was last year on June 5 when he was on the Nationals. He pitched 6 innings and allowed 2 earned runs, the Nats won that game 4-2. So we have a few things going for us, recent trends from the pitching and offense of both teams, good career history for each starter against the opposing lineups, and both starters last outing against the opposing lineups went under 7.5. I love the under tonight.
Dodgers / Brewers - No runs in the 1st (-160) - Here’s one that gets overlooked a lot in matchups that are expected to be dominated by pitching. Yes, the best hitters for each team will be hitting in the first inning but it’s their first time seeing the other pitcher. Here are my thoughts on this no runs in the first matchup for tonight. Let’s look at the top 5 hitters for each lineup against the opposing SP because if either team gets to the 6 hitter, we lose. The Dodgers will hit in the top of the first against Gio Gonzalez. Chris Taylor will lead off and he is 1-6, Justin Turner will be next and he is just 2-20, David Freese is 6-18, Machado is 6-18, and Kemp is 8-24 with 2 homeruns. I think Gio gets Taylor and Turner out. Then we will be counting on him to get Freese or Machado out before he gets to Kemp who I would view as a threat with 2 career homeruns against him. Bottom of the first we have Lorenzo Cain who is 3-14 against Kershaw - likely an out. Next up will be Christian Yelich who is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and is 9-17 vs Kershaw, he also has 2 homeruns. Then Ryan Bruan who is 11-38 with 1 HR. Big bat Jesus Aguilar is 0-8 against Kershaw. Finally Hernan Perez who is 0-5 against Kershaw. The homeruns from Yelich and Braun scare me a bit but that’s the only risk here. If either Yelich or Braun get on base with a double, I expect Kershaw to be able to get the other out and then Aguilar or Perez who are combined 0-13 against him. Aguilar is a prime time doubel play candidate.
NCAA:
South Florida (-7) - South Florida comes into this game undefeated and they are currently ranked #23 in the nation. Tulsa will be playing their third straight weeknight game and their season is headed downhill about as quickly as the New York Giants! Cue the crashing 18 wheeler video again. Tulsa had an impressive game in week 2 on the road against the Texas Longhorns but since then, it has been nothing but bad news for them. They haven’t covered +7 in their last three games and a lot of things aren’t going right for them right now. Tulsa lost 41-26 last Thursday against Houston and they allowed 312 rushing yards (7.6 yards per carry). It won’t get any easier tonight when they take on USF RB Jordan Cronkrite (say that last name 3 times fast) who is coming off of a school record setting performance when he put up 302 rushing yards against UMass. “Cronkrite Cronkrite Cronkrite” should be able to run all over this Tulsa defense and that will allow USF to control the game. Tulsa’s top two running backs are dealing with injuries so even if they play tonight, they won’t be 100%. Tulsa leads College Football with 9 fumbles this year and are in a four way tie for last place in turnovers with 16! You aren’t covering spreads when you are turning the ball over at that rate. USF has a +6 turnover ratio so I look for them to force some turnovers tonight against the Tulsa Turnovers, I mean Golden Hurricanes tonight. I expect this game to be all USF and they should be able to run away with this one, literally.
Teaser selections:
USF (-1) / San Diego State (-4.5) - You saw the reasons why I am so confident in USF above and now I’ll talk about SD State. They come in off of a big win against Boise State and they are undefeated at home this season. Air Force is coming off of a big win against Navy but they are 2-3 this season and they have lost both of their road games (they will be on the road tonight). Both Air Force and San Diego State rely heavily on the run and San Diego State has the much better run defense. The Aztecs are allowing JUST 1.96 yards per carry this season. San Diego State will be without their #1 RB since he suffered a broken collarbone a few weeks ago but Chase Jasmin is averaging 4.51 yards per carry through his first two games. I can see tomorrow’s newspaper headline now, “Chasing Jasmin,” it almost sounds like a porno. Give me San Diego State to cover the teased -4.5.
