10/13 VIP Picks




We go 1-3 last night and it was a BRUTAL night! Cue the video of the 18 wheeler again because we were all on board last night and it went off the road. WE are in this thing together and WE will bounce back today. Baseball sadly goes 1-1 and some bad defense led to early runs and an early yank for Kershaw. Football was just pathetic with the way USF played last night - 3rd and 17, QB scurries for a first down. 3rd and 12, RB runs untouched up the middle for 50 yards. PATHETIC. We need a huge bounce back day today and luckily there is a TON of action on the menu. Let’s eat.

UCF / Memphis Over (81.5) - This over is absurd but this game has the makings of a 100 point game, seriously. UCF comes into this game averaging 49 points a game while Memphis is averaging 46 points a game. Memphis is averaging 58 points a game in their home games. Both teams love playing the up tempo style offense and this matchup seems like an absolute track meet. This UCF defense likes to claim that they are a National Champion defense but they haven’t faced on offense that is as powerful as Memphis this year. They gave up 36 to Florida Atlantic who is the closest level of competition to this Memphis offense. We need 42 a side and I think we will get 50+ a side in this one. OVER OVER OVER. I’d also be on the lookout for Memphis to pull the upset here at home. 81% of the money is on UCF.

Georgia (-7) - Buy the half point from -7.5 to -7 to protect yourself. Georgia comes in 6-0 but they have a tough stretch ahead of them with four games in a row against Top 25 teams and it starts today in Death Valley. We will learn alot more about them over the next 4 weeks, hell the next 12 hours. LSU is coming off of a 27-19 loss to the Florida Gators. Let’s be clear, Florida isn’t Georgia. Georgia has been playing great football all season and they are looking to get back to the College Football playoff. I think both defenses will stop the run in this one and it will come down to the quarterbacks. Georgia’s Jake Fromm is averaging 9.9 yards per completion and has thrown for 14 touchdowns while only throwing 2 interceptions. LSU’s Joe Burrow has been playing good this season as well but he has relied on big plays down the field and this Georgia secondary is elite so they should limit the big play opportunities. This one will be close until Georgia forces multiple turnovers with Burrow taking shots down the field. The public is all over LSU at home so that makes me feel even more confident in this pick. GO DAWGS!

Colorado (+7) - USC hasn’t lost at home this year but they have lost to both of the Top 25 opponents that they have faced (Stanford & Texas) by multiple scores. Colorado comes in 5-0 and this is a HUGE game for them because they have never beaten USC but tonight is their best chance in a while yet they are 7 point underdog and are (+225) on the moneyline. USC hasn’t lost at home in over three years and that’s playing a factor in where this line is at. The USC rushing defense is not good at all and they are allowing 163 yards per game which ranks 67th in the country. Colorado running back Travon McMillian is averaging over 100 rushing yards a game so he should be able to get going against this weak run defense that USC will have on the field. That should open up the passing game for dual threat QB Steven Montez and his top receivers Jay McIntyre, K.D. Nixon, and Tony Brown. Let’s not forget Colorado’s top offensive weapon in Laviska Shenault who lines up all over the field and has led the team in receiving yards in 4 of their 5 games, he is a matchup nightmare. USC has had serious issues with penalties and turnovers in their last game and if they can’t correct those issues, Colorado will win this game outright. I think taking the points is the smart and safe play in this one but I think Colorado has a good chance to win this one outright.

Teaser selections (PLAY IN GROUPS OF 2) IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE:

West Virgina (-0.5)

Miami (-1)

Georgia (-1)

Colorado (+13)

Florida (-1.5)

Wisconsin (+16)

Top Teaser:

West Virginia (-0.5) / Miami (-1) - West Virginia comes in 5-0 and QB Will Grier is currently the top Heisman Candidate. He has thrown for 364 yards per game and has completed 71% of his passes this year, (that’s NUTS!) Iowa State has played Top 25 teams tough this season. They lost a close game but battled right until the end against #5 Oklahoma in week 3 and they are coming off of a big win against #25 Oklahoma State. They also played tough against TCU who was ranked earlier this season but they have fell off the cliff. Iowa State has true freshman QB Brock Purdy making his second career start and I don’t think he will have the fire power to keep up with Heisman Candidate Will Grier. This West Virginia defense is underrated and they have made stops when they need to in multiple games this year. I wouldn’t be so confident in the straight spread but I like the teaser as we just need WVU to win the game outright. Miami goes on the road to Virginia looking to improve to 6-1 on the season. I’m really not a Miami fan even though it may seem like that but I have really liked their matchups this year. Miami’s defense is no doubt one of the best in the country and they have 20 sacks through 6 games plus they have forced 14 turnovers. Get the maw fuckin chain out! Virginia QB Bryce Perkins threw 2 interceptions and completed 57% of his passes against NC State last week in a 35-21. Insert Miami defense here and they should force multiple turnovers that will allow Miami to win this game on the road. Oh, you guys want to hear more about the Miami offense? I thought the 35-21 loss to NC State and the Miami defense stats were enough. OK - the Miami offense is averaging 41.5 points per game and I get that Virginia’s defense is allowing just over 20 points per game but they haven’t faced an offense on the level of this Miami offense. They might not score 41.5 today (the probably will) but they will get out to an early lead and the Virginia offense will have a tough time playing from behind against this defense.

MLB:

Very tough loss on the jackhammer last night but we hit he no runs in the first and our playoff record moves to 12-3. Let’s make it 14-3 today!

Dodgers (Ryu) (-125) - 4 fucking errors last night which cost us the over (and a relif pitcher hitting a homerun - has that ever happened?) but this Dodgers team fought back and still almost won the game. Tonight is a huge bounce back game for them and they will be up against Wade Miley to start anyways. We saw how short of a leash Brewers Manager Craig Counsell will have with his starters last night and rightfully so with that bullpen. Josh Hader is the best guy out of that bullpen like we saw last night when he pitched 3 innings. He shouldn’t be pitching today if these stats tell us anything. He only pitched 3 innings one other time this season and that was the game before the All_Star break. Also, when he has pitched 2 innings, he hasn’t pitched the next day at all this season (22 times). Not to say it isn’t possible but it’s highly unlikely. The Brew Crew will hope Wade Miley can go deeper than Gio Gonzalez did because they used 6 guys out of their bullpen last night. Dodgers have five guys that have gone deep against Miley in their careers and we can expect a few long balls tonight from the Dodgers. There isn’t much matchup history for Ryu against this Brewers lineup but he threw 7 shutout innings against the Braves in his last outing. He comes in with a 1.97 earned run average and he has been dominant all year. He should be tough on this Brew Crew lineup and the Dodgers should give him the run support he needs. Go Dodgers!

Astros / Red Sox Over (7.5) - This one is headlined as a pitching duel for the ages between Chris Sale and Justin Verlander but let’s not forgot how POTENT both of these lineups are. The Red Sox are averaging 5.44 runs per game this season while the Astros aren’t far behind with 4.96 runs per game. Chris Sale and Justin Verlander both have one start against the opposing lineup this season and both of those games went over. Sale pitched on June 1 and allowed 4 earned runs over 6 innings in a 7-3 loss. Verlander pitched on June 2 and he only allowed 2 earned runs over 6 innings but the Astros lost the game 5-4. This Red Sox bullpen is shaky and it seems like none of them like each other because they put people on base and set up jams for the next guy to try and wiggle out of. This over opened at 7 and it’s moved up to 7.5. I think both lineups get to the opposing starter and this one turns into a slugfest between two of the top lineups in baseball.

NHL:

Hockey too! What a day!

Bruins (-1.5) - The Bruins have looked great over their last 3 games and they have covered the puck line in each of them winning 4-0 against the Sabres, 6-3 against the Senators, and 4-1 against the Oilers. They will host the Red Wings today who haven’t won a game yet this season and they haven’t looked very good. This game is at 3 o’clock EST and I can tell you that a lot of people will be doing the ol Bruins/Sox double header. The Garden will be rocking and the Bruins should cover the -1.5.

Parlay - Predators ML / Bruins ML (-104) - This parlay will pay just under even money and that is great value for two teams who are heavy favorites and who should not lose today! You saw the Bruins stats above. The Preds are 3-1 and are coming off of a nice 3-0 win against the Jets. The Preds already beat this Islanders team on the road last week so they should be able to take care of business in SMASHVILLE tonight.

#VIP