10/31 VIP Picks



1-4 last night and I totally forgot that the NHL just signed a partnership with MGM for sportsbetting on Monday. It all makes sense now and hockey could be tough to bet on because they are clearly fixing games. You guys saw the matchups last night and how favorable the Penguins, Blue Jackets, and Sharks were yet all three of them lost. Here’s some more info for you - Penguins had 76% of public money on them, Blue Jackets had 77% of public money on them, and Sharks had 82% of public money on them. Those were the top three teams that that had the most public money on them last night. There’s really no other explanation for it. We are going to have to be cautious of the public money this season with hockey. As for the Hawks who smoked the Cavs just over a week ago, the refs made sure that the Cavs got their first win of the season by putting them on the free throw line 43 times compared the the 17 of the Hawks. I’m really not making this stuff up, it makes it pretty obvious. Back at it today and we need a winning day after two losing days in a row (that hasn’t happened for a while). We need high percentage plays to get back to winning so let’s see what we got.

NBA:

Parlay - Nuggets ML / Pacers ML (-126) - The 5-1 Nuggets come in as 8 point favorites tonight against the 2-5 Bulls and this Nuggets team beat the Warriors ten days ago then that same Warriors team dropped 149 on the Bulls two nights ago. I would be taking Nuggets -8 if we didn’t have two losing days in a row but since we have I’ll play this moneyline parlayed with the Pacers ML because it’s safe and it’s a good payout. The Pacers will take on the 2-5 Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks beat the Nets in their last game but they had lost 5 in a row before that. The Pacers look like they will be a good team this year led by Victor Oladipo and they should be able to win this game outright tonight, they are favored by 6 on the spread. The reason for this play is because it is a smart play and it’s valuable at -126 odds.

Teaser - Pistons (+6.5) / Spurs (-3) - You guys know how we have had crazy success with teasers in football but that’s not the only sport we can take advantage. We move the spread by 6 in football but we can move it by 4 in basketball. That makes these two matchups look great tonight. We have the Pistons taking on the 2-5 Nets who just got blown out by the Knicks. The Pistons just played a good Celtics team tough last night and I know sometimes back to backs can be scary but not against this Nets team. Even if the Pistons don’t win this game, tease the spread to +6.5 - I don’t see them losing this game by 6+. Then we have the late ESPN game with the Spurs taking on the 1-5 Suns. The Suns have lost five games in a row by an average of 19 points including a 131-113 loss against the Lakers who the Spurs have already beat twice this season. Basketball teasers pay -110 odds so they are good value. It also makes for a high percentage play because we get to move the spread by two possessions.

NCAAF:

Ball State / Toledo Under (66) - Wednesday Night Maction on Halloween. Trick or mother fucking treat. I think the under is a nice treat for us in this one. Ball State will be without their starting quarterback who suffered a knee injury last week - they only scored 14 points in that game. The three games before that they averaged 20 points per game. Toledo’s starting QB is questionable tonight after suffering a shoulder injury last week and if he can’t go, the backup QB has only completed 47% of his passes in games he has played in this year. With backup QBs playing, both offenses could look to rely on the run and that will keep the clock ticking in this one. 66 is a lot of points for two teams who won’t be at full strength even if Toledo’s starting QB can go his shoulder will be bothering him. A famous saying is life’s too short to take the under but this one is too much of a treat to not take.

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