Don't Bet Bama, yet.

So you’ve decided that you want to bet on Alabama to win the College Football Championship? I’m here to talk some sense into you. Let me clarify what I mean by that, I’m not going to tell you not to bet on Bama to win the College Football Championship, I’m just telling you to wait. The books currently have Bama listed as -300 favorites to win the National Championship but I think there will be more value if you wait until the game line comes out in January. Bama has been favored in the last five National Championships that they have played in and they have only been -300 favorites or larger in one of those five games. Let’s look at the lines and results from the last five National Championships that Bama has played in:

2017/2018 - Alabama (-182) against Georgia - Win 26-23

2016/2017 - Alabama (-233) against Clemson - Loss 35-31

2015/2016 - Alabama (-244) against Clemson - Win 45-40

2012/2013 - Alabama (-357) against Notre Dame - Ass whooping Win 42-14

2011/2012 - Alabama (-141) against LSU - Win 21-0

So there are the results and they are 4-1 in their last five Nattys with the one loss coming to Clemson and that game winning drive led by Deshaun Watson.

The only time that Bama was favored by more than -300 on the moneyline was in 2012/2013 when they beat Notre Dame 42-14.

There is still a lot of football left to go before the final Playoff Rankings are released but I would be comfortable putting money on another Bama vs Clemson matchup unless something crazy happens. Notre Dame is the other 9-0 team and they will most likely make it to the playoff but they can’t stack up with Bama or Clemson. It’ll be interesting to see who will be the 4th team that gets into the playoff.

If it’s the likely matchup of Bama vs. Clemson, I would expect Bama to be favored by -4 and the moneyline will be around -180. That’s much more value than the books have them listed at -300 right now. However, if Notre Dame or Michigan make it to the Championship, I’d expect Bama to be favored by -13.5 and the moneyline will be -800. If UCF gets their wish and gets in (this won’t happen but I just want to prove a point), Bama would be favored by -35 and there wouldn’t be a moneyline available. I’m counting on Bama vs Clemson again and that -180 moneyline being available. I’m not telling you not to bet Bama, I’m just telling you to wait it out for better value.