2-1 last night and the JACKHAMMER hits at even money so we won a little extra on the big one! Happy Thanksgiving to all of you guys. Enjoy your day with family and friends. Food, alcohol, bets, and more food - should be a great day!
Ok, first game on the day is 12:30 EST and if you haven’t heard, the Bears “might be” without starting QB Mitch Trubisky and Chase Daniel is “more likely” to start than Trubisky. Usually words like that are used when no one really knows what is going to happen. So I hope you are all reading through this before placing your bets. Some of you just look at the pick and bet it but you better be reading this - FOR GAME 1 WE HAVE TWO OPTIONS - IF TRUBISKY DOES PLAY THEN WE TAKE THE BEARS -3 IF HE DOESN’T PLAY THEN WE TEASE THE LIONS UP TO +9 WITH THE COWBOYS DOWN TO -1.5.
IF MITCH TRUBISKY DOES PLAY:
Bears (-3) - We went against the Bears on Sunday Night Football but that was an impressive win for them in a big spot. Some may be concerned about a short week of preparation for the Bears since they played the late game Sunday but their gameplan should pretty much be in place from two weeks ago when they beat this Lions team 34-22 in Chicago. The spread was 7 in that game. Mitch Trubisky threw for 355 yards on this Lions passing defense that has been bend but don’t break all season. Yes, the Lions snapped their three game losing streak on Sunday but that was because the Panthers and RIVER BOAT RON decided to go for 2 instead of kick the extra point to tie the game. The Lions were 3-6 this season before the Panthers gift wrapped that win for them a month before Christmas. I completely in on this Bears team at this point in the season at 7-3 and riding a 4 game winning streak into this one. All the talk about the Bears possibly being without their starting QB has shifted the public money on this game with 55% on the Lions now. Give me the Bears to cover the -3 today and start our day off right with a turkey leg.
IF MITCH TRUBISKY DOESN’T PLAY:
Lions (+9) / Cowboys (-1) - If Mitch Trubisky doesn’t start and back up QB Chase Daniel plays, I don’t see how the Lions don’t cover +9. The Bears defense will still be strong but their offense won’t be the same without Mitchy Scrambles operating it. You can see the breakdown of the Cowboys teased down to -1.5 below.
Cowboys (-1) / Over (34.5) - Don’t look now but here come the Cowboys. A couple of weeks ago, you would think that the Redskins had a pretty good grip on the NFC East sitting at 5-2 after beating the Cowboys who dropped to 3-4. Fast forward a few weeks and the Cowboys have won two straight while the Skins have lost 2 of 3 and have lost their starting QB Alex Smith to a broken leg. Dallas at home on Thanksgiving will be a huge advantage for the Boys and it will be tough on the Skins to go in and win this game, especially with a backup QB. I have the Cowboys winning this game and I like the over teased to 34.5. Both teams have been scoring and allowing around 20 points per game all season and I think this one will be right in the ballpark. I do trust Colt McCoy to put up some points as he was able to keep last week’s game close against a good Texans team. Cowboys teased with the over seems like such an American thing to do and something to be thankful for. Book it.
Saints / Falcons OVER (61) - The final score was 43-37 (80 total) when these two teams played eachother back in week 3. There’s a few things that haven’t changed since that game - the Saints keep winning, the Saints keep scoring, and the Falcons defense keeps sucking. The Saints are averaging 48 points per game in their last 3 and 37.8 points per game on the season. The Falcons are averaging 26 points per game this season even though they have a losing record of 4-6. Both of these passing defenses have allowed just under 300 yards per game this season. This one has shootout written all over it and it could be almost as fun to watch as the last primetime game we watched on Monday Night - I said almost. Regardless, I think this one goes over 61.
Mississippi State (-12.5) - MSU will take on Ole Miss tonight and Ole Miss has now lost 4 games straight. If we check out some common opponents we can see the way this game should be shifting early. Ole Miss lost to Texas A&M and MSU beat Texas A&M 28-13. Ole Miss lost to Auburn and MSU beat Auburn 23-9. Ole Miss snuck by Arkansas and MSU beat Arkansas 52-6. I love this MSU defense that has held opponents to less than 14 points eight times this season. What has Ole Miss done against other good defenses this season? Scored 7 against Bama, scored 16 against LSU, and scored 16 against Auburn. This could be another game where they are held to two touchdowns or less, the MSU defense is that good. Other than MSU’s matchup against Bama, their offense has been clicking recently and they just put up 52 last week. You have to go with MSU in this game and I think they will cover the -12.5 for us!