5-3 yesterday but if Memphis didn’t blow that 24-7 lead that they got out to against UCF, we would have went 7-1. We will still take the winning night but it would have been nice if Memphis didn’t gag! I thought yesterday was going to be that unbelievable type 7-1 or 8-0 day but a few things didn’t go our way, maybe that day is going to be today. NFL Sunday today and there is a lot of opportunity out there so let’s take a look at the picks for today as we go for our third straight winning day after that Saints debacle on Thursday Night.
Bears (-4.5) - The Bears come into this one sitting pretty at 8-3 but it’s looking like it will be their second game in a row without their starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Chase Daniel got the start for the Bears in their last game on Thanksgiving and was not only able to lead the Bears to victory but also cover the spread. The Bears have had the extra time to prepare for this one thanks for playing on Thursday last week. The Giants come in 3-8 and they have been a mess - they have only played one team with a winning record in their last 6 games yet their record is just 2-4 in those games. This Bears defense ranks #2 against the run so I am expecting them to slow down the Giants top option Saquon Barkley. I also expect this Bears pass rush to get to Eli early and often which will disrupt the passing game. The defense should do their job and hold this Giants offense to a number that is managable for Chase Daniel and the Bears offense to top. I also think the Bears defense is a prime fantasy play today against Eli since their pass rush should generate multiple turnovers. I have the Bears in this one.
Texans (-6) - I saw this line down to -4 at one point yesterday but it has moved back to -6. I like it at -4 and I like it at -6. Texans have now rolled off 8 straight wins since starting the season 0-3 and they have looked great doing it. Lamar Miller has had three 100+ rushing yard games during that stretch and he should be able to get going again today against this Browns defense who currently ranks 28th in the league against the run and is allowing 131.8 rushing yards per game. The running game should get going early and that will open things up for the triple D passing attack. The Browns have won 2 games in a row but they are still just 4-6-1 on this season. I think the Texans stay hot and cover this spread for us today.
Panthers / Bucs Over (53) - Both of these teams come into this game averaging 26 points per game and they have shown that they are both capable of putting up some points. Another number that makes this one look sexy is that their defenses are allowing 30.7 and 25.6 points per game this season. The Panthers have gone over 53 in 4 of their last 5 games while the Bucs have gone over 53 in 3 of their last 5 games. These two teams played eachother on November 4 and the final score was 42-28 (70). I’ll also put a cherry on top of this one for you and let you know that 56% of the public money is on the under in this game. I can here Tommy talking to his bookie now, “Gimme the undah fo Carolina and Tampa, 53 is too much Frankie.” Sorry Tommy, this one’s going over. (Tommy & Frankie are both fictional characters from Boston)
Chiefs (-15) - Kareem Hunt is gone but that means that Pat Mahomes will just throw the ball more and that just means that this Chiefs team will score even more. The Chiefs are coming off of that Monday Night shootout loss to the Rams and they have had a bye week to recover and get ready for today’s game against a pathetic Raiders team. The spread might seem big to you but the 7 of the 9 Raider losses have been by multiple touchdowns. The Raiders are a bad football team and even without Kareem Hunt, I think the Chiefs are still the best team in the AFC. Plug in another running back and throw the ball more, simple way for this Chiefs team to cover the big number today.
Play in groups of 2. Listed in order of confidence:
Patriots / Vikings over (42.5)
Texans ML / Rams ML / Packers ML (-116) - How does this lose? It pays just under even money and this is great value.
Flames / Blackhawks Over (5.5) - The Blackhawks have gone over 5.5 in their last 6 games including last night against Nashville and we were all over it. Look for the trend to continue tonight when they host the Flames who have gone over 5.5 in 3 of their last 5 games and are averaging 3.38 goals per game this season. If the books are going to keep feeding us the 5.5 overs in Blackhawks games, we are going to keep taking them. THANK YOU!