12/18 VIP Picks
Not the start we wanted to the week but both defenses showed up in the football game last night and the Predators let us down in over time. Luckily, there are some good opportunities for us tonight so let’s get right into the picks.
NHL:
Predators / Blackhawks Over (6) - We are 3-0 on overs involving the Blackhawks this season and I see that becoming a profitable trend for us as the season goes on. We’ve touched on it before but the fact that they are allowing just under 4 goals per game (3.83) makes our chances of hitting the over skyrocket. One of those 3 wins we got involved this same matchup between the Preds and Blackhawks back on 12/1 when the Preds won 5-2. The Blackhawks and their opponents have combined for an average of 8.75 goals per game in their last 4 games and the opponents have done most of the damage scoring 7, 6, and 4. The Predators have combined with their opponents for 7 total goals in 3 of their last 5 games. I thought the over for tonight would be set at 6.5 when I saw this game on the schedule. Love the over at 6 and this one is on NBC Sports Network tonight.
Jets (-160) - The Jets have been playing phenomenal hockey as of late and they are certainly on their way UP. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and their most recent came against the Lightning who are the top team in the NHL standings. The Jets have already beat this struggling Kings team this year and the Kings are losers for 4 straight. I’ve got the Jets in this one and I have no problem paying the juice on this moneyline for this matchup.
NBA:
Wizards (-2.5) - Both of these teams have been sucking and have both lost 4 of their last 5 games but atleast the Wizards have shown some life during that stretch. The Wiz took the Celtics to overtime and they were in games against the Pacers and Nets who have both already laid a beat down on the Hawks this season but who hasn’t? I really like the fact that the Wizards are coming off of an 18 point win against the Lakers and maybe that will get this team going in the right direction. They will be without Porter Jr. tonight but newly acquired Trevor Ariza may be making his return to is old team after being traded to them over the weekend. Either way, I like the Wizards going into this matchup tonight and they should be able to run away with this one.
Nuggets (-4.5) - The Nuggets are currently tied for first place in the Western Conference and they’ve been playing great ball all season. They are 12-3 at home this season and that’s a mix of their talent and the thin air. The Mavericks will visit the mile high city tonight and their struggles on the road this season (2-10) should continue against this first place Nuggets team. The Mavs are so bad on the road that they have lost twice on the road to the 7-24 Suns. The Nuggets are riding a 3 game winning streak against good teams - Grizzlies, Thunder, and Raptors. The Nuggets should be able to cover the spread for us against this Mavs team who SUCK on the road.
NCAAF:
Teaser:
Northern Illinois (+8.5) / Over (36.5) - We are hitting our teaser selections for College Football at 61% this season so let’s ride this teaser tonight. All of the experts are talking about the running games and defense in this game so that may make you think the under is the lean in this one but I’m here with some numbers to show you why we are teasing with the over. Let’s look at the offenses first - UAB is averaging 29.3 points per game and Northern Illinois is averaging 20.7 points per game. Their defenses are allowing 17.3 and 21.5. So even if these defenses slow the opposing offense down a little, we should still hit the teased over at 36.5. If you look at each team’s schedule, over 36.5 hit in 11 of 13 UAB games and 10 of 13 Northern Illinois games. If you take the average of all to point totals in both team’s games from this season it’s 44.4 and that’s with a couple Northern Illinois games that are huge outliers of 7-6 and 13-7. The UAB offense has averaged 208 rushing yards a game and they will look to get that going tonight against a Northern Illinois D line who has contained backs from getting outside but not up the middle. The Northern Illinois offense is coming off of one of their best offenses performances all year and that had a lot to do with the fact that they had to keep pace with Buffalo. I think they will be forced into a similar style game like that again tonight. I think this one goes over 36.5 and I think Northern Illinois covers the +8.5, I think they might even win this one outright.