Merry Christmas to all of you! I hope you enjoy your day with family and friends. We have a full slate of NBA games and today’s write up will be Christmas Themed.
Stocking stuffer pick:
Bucks / Knicks Over (225.5) - It’s no secret that the money is starting to come in heavy on the under in this game. The line has moved from 227 to 225.5 in the last half hour. 69% of the public money is on the under and this line will probably continue to drop as we get closer to tip. That movement makes me love the over in this one. These teams have played each other twice this season and both games have gone over with total scores of - 237 & 270. That’s not a typo - 270 granted that game went to overtime. Both teams like to play up tempo and neither of them play much defense. The Bucks come in averaging 116 a game and allowing 108 while the Knicks come in allowing 115 and averaging 108. I think we will see an entertaining high scoring game for the Christmas Day NBA Marathon and this one goes over!
Presents & hot cocoa pick:
Thunder (+1) - The Rockets will be without starting point guard Chris Paul and newly sign Austin Rivers will be filling in. Both teams have been playing good ball and come in winning 4 of their last 5. These two teams played each other back on 11/8 and the Thunder won by 18 - 98-80. 18 point win is impressive alone but the Thunder also were able to do that without their best player Russell Westbrook playing. They have won 9 of their last 13 and 2 of their 4 losses were by just 2 points. This Thunder team also has the best ranked point differential in the league at 6.4. Look for them to stay hot today.
Prime Rib dinner pick:
Lakers (+9) - I did some research and from the games that I could find, LeBron is 9-3 straight up on Christmas Day. Two of those losses came against this Warriors team in 2017 & 2015 so you might not want to jump on the +330 moneyline in this one but the +9 seems like too much. This Warriors team has won 4 out of their last 5 but they were only able to cover -9 in one of those games. I think the 9 is too big of a gap for a prime rib I mean prime time game on Christmas Night on ABC. Eat up!
Leftovers pick: added at 8:55 p.m. - twitter/insta posts to notify.
Blazers / Jazz Over (214.5) - First things first, the public has won on over unders today. 55% had the under in the Bucks game, 58% had the over in the Rockets game, 56% had the over in the Celtics game, and 53% have the over in the Lakers game that is trending over. The Jazz just beat the Blazers 120-90 4 days ago and both teams got out to a fast pace in that one before the Blazers offense stumbled in the second half. Blazers are averaging 111 ppg and allowing 110 ppg. The Jazz are averaging 107 and allowing 106. The public is on the under in this one and I don’t see the public sweeping Christmas Day. I like the over in this one.