12/29 VIP Picks


Auburn + 2 or 3 units

Parlay +1.28 units

Washington St +.77 units

Total +4.05 or 5.05 units. That essentially wipes out the last two cold days and we are still chasing 4 units from Tuesday/ Monday. We aren’t going into today thinking about chasing units on the week though, we are going into today with the mindset that it’s the BIGGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY OF THE YEAR AND WE WENT 3-0 LAST NIGHT! Let’s fucking party!

NCAAF:

Florida / Michigan Over (50.5) - We need a 27-24 game or more for this to hit and I think that is well within reach for both of these teams. Michigan had the best defense in college football allowing just 13.5 points per game before their last game against Ohio State when they allowed the Buckeyes to drop 62 on them. OVER! The thing this Michigan defense struggled with against Ohio State was their speed at the receiver position. Michigan will face a similar matchup against Florida today. Florida has been a pretty balanced offense all season but I think they will look to pass on this Michigan defense who couldn’t stop the speedy receivers of Ohio State in their last game. Michigan will also be without their top defensive end and linebacker for this game as they hold out for the NFL Draft. The Michigan offense has ranked #4th in time of possession but they will be without their starting runningback today and I think they will need to keep pace with the Florida offense that should be aggressive against this secondary. Both offenses come in to this game averaging 34+ points per game. 56% of the public on the under in this one and that makes me like the over even more. Nothing like starting your day cheering for an over with a noon kickoff! LFG!

Clemson (-11.5) - Double digit spreads in the College Football Playoff, gotta love it. Clemson will be without their starting D tackle but they have guys to fill in and this unit will still be dominant against the run tonight. They only allowed opposing runningbacks to average 2.4 yards per carry this season. Notre Dame will struggle to run the ball against this front seven of Clemson and that may force Notre Dame to be one dimensional and look to pass. Clemson’s d line also ranked 3rd in College Football with 46 sacks and 2nd with 121 tackles for a loss. This is one of those matchups where Clemson just has better athletes than Notre Dame, bottom line. The Clemson defense has been salivating over this matchup for the last month and I think they will be dominant tonight. Clemson’s defense ranks 3rd nationally allowing just 13.7 points per game. The Notre Dame defense comes in allowing just 17.3 points per game but they haven’t seen an offense as powerful as this Clemson offense. The Clemson offense has made big plays a theme this season and they have 30 plays that went for 40+ yards this season. Again, the Irish haven’t seen an explosive offense like this (don’t tell me Syracuse was because they lost their starting QB in the first half). I think this will be a close ball game in the first half but the Clemson D will come up with a few stops/turnovers in the second half and Clemson pulls away to cover the 11.5. Alert alert alert - the public is betting Notre Dame harder than any other team so far in bowl season. 74% of the public money is on Notre Dame to cover. The second most bet on team by the public in bowl season was Georgia Tech -5.5 and they lost 34-10. Let’s go Clemson!

Alabama (-14) - Another double digit spread in the College Football Playoff, gotta love it. This matchup features the two best offenses in College Football. Oklahoma comes in averaging 49.5 points per game and Bama comes in averaging 47.8 points per game. There’s no question that both teams can score the ball but there’s this saying that’s been around a long time and it’s “DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.” Let’s talk about the defense in this game. Where should we start? Alabama comes in ranked 4th in points allowed per game holding opponents to just 14.7 points per game. Obviously Oklahoma is going to score more than 14 tonight but this Bama defense will be the best defense that this Oklahoma offense has seen all season. On the flip side, Oklahoma puts 11 players on the field when their opponent has the ball but I wouldn’t necessarily call them a defense. We can call them a “unit.” This Oklahoma unit ranks 91st in points allowed per game at 32.4 and the ugliest of them all, they rank 129 out of 130 against the pass allowing 291 yards per game. Oklahoma allowed West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, and Texas to score 40+ on them this season. Granted they won all of those games except the first matchup to Texas but none of those teams have the defense that Bama brings on the field tonight. I really think this matchup will be tough for Oklahoma because they will be grinding out drives to try and get points and then Bama will take the field and score at will. It will just be too tough for Oklahoma to keep pace with the Bama offense because Oklahoma doesn’t have a defense and DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. ROLL. DAMN. TIDE.

NHL:

Parlay:

Lightning ML / Capitals ML (+104) - The Lightning will host the Canadiens who they beat 4-1 in their only meeting this season. With a win tonight, the Lightning will have gone the whole month of December without losing a game in regulation. Nuts. They are THAT good. The Capitals will take on the slumping Senators who have lost 7 of their last 10 and the Caps are 15-3 in their last 18. Even money payout for two teams that should absolutely dominate tonight.

Saturday cross sport parlay:

Lightning ML / Capitals ML / Alabama ML / Clemson ML (+201) - JACKHAMMER - Is it ballsy to double down on a 4 team parlay? Some may say that. I just look at these four matchups and don’t see anyway any of them lose? The Lightning beat the Canadiens 4-1 in their first meeting, they haven’t lose a game in regulation in December, and the Canadiens are on the second night of a back to back. The Capitals are 15-3 in their last 18 and they just beat this Senators team 4-0 in Ottawa a week ago. You see the in depth analysis of Clemson and Bama above and I just don’t see either of those double digit spreads losing the game outright? Risk 2 units to win 4.02 on this one. Make it a HUGE Saturday. KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFSPORTS!

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