2019 NFL Regular Season Review

The 2019 NFL regular season has come to an end and as always, it’s nice to take some time to look at the results and some of the highlights (and lowlights) of the season before we jump into the playoffs. We finished the regular season with a record of 110-72-4 for a profit of 30.7 units so if you bet $100 on every pick, you would have profited $3,070. Of course the VIP picks come at a price so if you had the monthly membership for the NFL season, you would have spent $400 to profit $2,670 - not bad. Let’s take a look back at some of the best bets and worst bets from the 2019 season.

Week 1:Patriots (-5.5) - Tom Brady had never lost at home against the Steelers in his career. He is 5-0 with 1,797 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bill Belichick is 11-3 in games vs the Steelers as head coach of the Patriots. The Pats have won 4 of the last 5 against the Steelers and have outscored them by 53 points in those wins. This Steelers offense will look different this season now that they have lost Antonio Brown (who indirectly made his way to the Patriots and will most likely be on the sideline tonight) and Le’Veon Bell in the last two seasons. The Pittsburgh defense was middle of the pack last season but Belichick always seems to scheme something up to out coach Tomlin. The Patriots offense will also have a different look after losing Rob Gronkowski. However, Brady comes into this season with one of his best receiving groups in his career with Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and Demaryius Thomas (AB can’t play tonight). It didn’t seem like it during the regular season but this Patriots defense ranked #6 in points allowed per game and they held the LA Rams (the #2 offense) to just 3 points in the Superbowl. I think this Patriots defense is going to be better this season with the additions of Michael Bennett and Jamie Collins. The Patriots will raise their 6th Superbowl banner tonight and this won’t be the first time Tomlin and Big Ben will watch that ceremony, they were there in 2015 and the Patriots went on to win that game 28-21. I like the Pats to cover the -5.5 on our first Sunday Night Football play of the season. 

Week 2

Browns (-7) - The Jets will be dealing with the injury bug tonight with QB Sam Darnold out due to mono, LB C.J. Mosely & DE Quinlan Williams will also be out with injuries. RB Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a shoulder injury and WR Robbie Anderson is battling a calf injury. This is the exact kind of matchup that this Browns team needs after the whooping they took last week and all of the hype/expectations they had coming into the season. The Jets will likely rely on Le’Veon Bell so this Browns rushing defense will need to be better than they were last week and I think they will. The Titans had a balance attack against the Browns last week but it’s hard to imagine the Jets won’t be one dimensional tonight with Trevor Siemian playing his first game since 2017. He only averaged 207 passing yards per game and had a QB rating of 30.9. This Jets defense blew a 16-0 second half lead last week but I don’t think they will have a lead to blow tonight. I expect the Browns to take control of this one early and never look back. Big night for Baker and this Browns offense.

Week 3:

Pats -22 - Going great until Stidham came in and had his rookie salary on Jets +22.

Week 4:

Cowboys -2.5

Week 5:

Rams (+7.5) / Over (43.5) - Let’s start talking about the over in this one before we get to the side. Both of these defenses have allowed 25+ points in half of their games. The other half of their games were played against struggling offenses. Neither one of these offenses are struggling this season as they both come into tonight’s matchup ranked in the Top 10 - the Rams are averaging 29.2 points per game and the Seahawks are averaging 25.8 points per game. I think this will be more of an offensive game than the majority of the Thursday Night games this season. I get it that the Rams just got torched by the Bucs last week but before that, they were 2-0 on the road and also beat the same Breesless Saints team that beat the Seahawks in Seattle. That was the only Seahawks L this season but they barely beat the Bengals and Steelers who are cellar dwellers of the league this season. I like taking our chances with the Rams at +7.5 on this teaser.

Week 6:

Saints (+125) - The Saints come in 4-1 on the season and the one loss came in a game where they dealt with their star QB Drew Brees getting hurt. Teddy Bridgewater seemed flustered in that situation but he has played well in the games he has started since and has led the Saints to three straight wins. The Jaguars defense gave up 285 yards on the ground last week to Carolina and they will have their hands full going against Alvin Kamara today. Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette is coming off of back to back 100 yard games but this Saints defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher this season. Teddy Bridgewater and Michael Thomas linked up 11 times for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. The Jags are 2-3 but their two wins came against teams with losing records. Today will be a homecoming game for the Jags and they will be inviting back over 80 former players. They will also wear the throwback jerseys from 1995, they went 4-12 that year. Give me Saints moneyline!

Week 7:

Saints (+175) - We smashed the Saints as an “underdog” last week and got a good payout but this week is even better. The Bears will be home and it sounds like they will be getting their starting QB back but let’s not act like he’s great and will drastically improve this offense that has struggled this season. The Saints will still be with Teddy Bridgewater who is now 4-0 as a starter and 2 of those wins came on the road. With both defenses looking good this season, I expect this to be a low scoring game and the Saints have shown the ability to win low scoring battles against the Jags last week and the Cowboys a few weeks ago. The Bears lost their last game against the Raiders but they have had a BYE week and they will come out strong but I like what I have seen from the Saints this season. They have been playing with a purpose and continue to get the job done. Give me the +175!!!

Week 8:

Seahawks (-8) - The Seahawks will be playing that dreaded east cost 1 o’clock game today but it will be against a 1-6 Falcons team who will be without their starting QB and just traded their #2 receiver. Things were not pretty for the Falcons last week when they lost 37-10 against the Rams. The Seahawks beat the Rams a few weeks ago. Russell Wilson should be able to get the offense going today against this Falcons defense that has allowed 31.9 points per game. I don’t think the Falcons will be able to keep up today and they are getting to the point of the season where they are trying to lose to secure a high draft pick next year. GIVE ME SEATTLE! 27-0 at halftime and they win by 7……...

Week 9:

Seahawks (-5) - The Bucs come in losers in 4 of their last 5 and 5 out of 7 this season while the Seahawks have won 4 of their last 5. The Bucs have continued to make it a common theme of turning the ball over and QB Jameis Winston leads the league in interceptions thrown with 12. I expect this Seattl defense who ranks #4 in takeaways to force multiple turnovers in this game. Seattle hasn’t struggled scoring against bad defenses and they should be excited for this matchup today against the Bucs who have allowed 30.3 points per game this season. I like the Seahawks to cover for us.

Week 10:

Teaser: Seahawks (+12) / Over (41.5) - JACKHAMMER - this one seems smashable! I like the Seahawks to win this game tonight so I’m extremely comfortable teasing them up to +12. Although their strength of schedule isn’t great, they still come in 7-2 on the season as they look to knock off their undefeated divisional opponent. The Seahawks have played high scoring games with 6 of their 8 going over 41.5. Russell Wilson has thrown for 22 touchdowns to just 1 interception. 5 of the 8 49ers games have gone over 41.5 this season including their 28-25 victory over the Cardinals their last time out. Jimmy G will be without his favorite target George Kittle tonight but he has other weapons available and this 49ers offense has been balanced all season. Both teams are averaging 27.6 points and 29.4 points per game. This one will probably turn out to be the best Monday Night game of the season. Give me Seahawks +12 and over 41.5!

Week 11:

Jets (+110) - It feels a bit awkward to be hyping up the 2-7 Jets today but...THEY ARE PLAYING THE 1-8 REDSKINS. Dwayne Haskins will make the start for the Redskins and he has struggled when he’s gotten playing time this year throwing 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while compiling a QB rating of 42.2. The Skins have not showed much life this season and 7 of their 8 losses have come by a touchdown or more. The Jets have actually been in games and got their 2 wins with a healthy Sam Darnold. Both teams in this matchup are bad but I like the Jets today. C’mon now, all together - “J E T S JETS JETS JETS! LFG!!

Week 12:

Bills (-3) - The spread is at -3.5 but let’s buy the half point to get this one at -3 to protect ourselves. The Bills bounced back last week with a 17 point win over a bad Dolphins team but that was good to see after they lost 19-16 against the Browns the week before. They are now 7-3 and are right in the AFC Playoff hunt. They have more to play for than this 3-7 Broncos team that is just 1-4 on the road this season. The Broncos were up 20-0 at half against the Vikings last week before the Vikings outscored them 27-3 in the second half. No momentum and no hope for this Broncos team going on the road to a tough place to play in Buffalo where it’ll be 36 degrees at kickoff. Bills QB won the AFC Offensive player of the week award last week after throwing for 3 touchdowns against the Dolphins. Both defenses have been good holding their opponents to less than 20 points per game. I’m more confident in the Bills making plays and playing with a purpose in this one where the Broncos season is getting to the point of slipping away. Go Bills!

Week 13:

Packers / Giants Over (43) - Two teams that have allowed an average of 50 points per game should go over 43 today even with light rain in the forecast. When the Packers get their running game going, the whole offense opens up and performs better. I think the Packers will establish the run early against this Giants defense that allowed 172 rushing yards to the Cowboys a few weeks ago. That should open up the passing game for Rodgers and company. The Packers have shown the ability to cover most of this number for us, they have scored 42, 34, & 31 in their top offensive performances this season. They are going up against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Packers defense has been better by the numbers but they have allowed 20+ points in 7 of their 11 games. I don’t think this game will be close and it’ll be one of those games with garbage time points in the second half. I like this over with a final score somewhere around 35-17.

Week 14:

Titans (-3) - The Titans have been hot and they have won 5 of their last 6 and have themselves back in the Wild Card hunt. The Raiders have lost their last 2 games and even though they were on the road, that’s not a good excuse to get outscored 74-12. The Titans beat the same Chiefs team that just beat the Raiders 40-9 last week. I never thought I’d be saying this but Ryan Tannehill has given this Titans team life. They have scored 31, 42, & 35 in their last 3 games and judging by the way the Raiders defense has played lately, they should put up another nice number today. Give me the Titans to cover on the road.

Week 15:

Jets / Ravens Over (44.5) - Jets moneyline, just kidding! I like the over in this game tonight though. The Ravens offense has been the best in the league scoring 33.1 points per game. They have had a few tests in recent weeks against the good defenses of the 49ers and Bills but I expect them to get back to scoring 30+ tonight against the Jets. Prior to their 2 most recent games against the 49ers and Bills, the Ravens scored 45 against the Rams, 41 against the Texans, 49 against the Bengals, 37 against the Patriots, and 30 against the Seahawks. I’m confident that they will put up 30+ tonight so that begs the question, can the Jets score 2 touchdowns against the Ravens defense. I think the answer is yes, the Ravens have allowed an average of 18.2 points per game. By no means has this Jets offense been good this season but they have still put up 17.4 points per game. It’s also nice seeing that the Ravens have covered 44.5 themselves three times this season.

Week 16:

Saints (-3) - The Saints will be on the road in Nashville to go for the sweep over the AFC South division this season. They are coming off of the 34-7 ass whooping they gave to the Colts last Monday Night. This record breaking offense looks unstoppable right now and Drew Brees has thrown 9 touchdown passes in his last two games. The Titans won’t go down without a fight since they come in 8-6 and are in a battle for a Wild Card spot in the AFC. I think the Saints defense will be able to slow down this Titan offense that has looked great recently which will make it tough for them to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Go Saints!

Week 17:

Eagles (-3.5) - The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win over the 4-11 Giants today and I think that’s exactly what they will do. These two teams played a few weeks ago and the Giants had a 17-3 lead at half before the Eagles ran off 20 straight points and won in overtime. The Eagles are coming off of a 17-9 win over the Cowboys which has put them in position to clinch the division today. Holding the Cowboys to 9 points last week gives this Eagles defense some momentum going into this game today against rookie QB Daniel Jones and this Giants offense. I can’t believe I’m saying it but I trust Carson Wentz to lead this Wagles team to victory. A win would send the Eagles into the playoffs on a 4 game winning streak and that’s a lot of momentum.

Most profitable team for us = Chiefs 9-2

Least profitable team for us = Cowboys 4-6

It was another fun season with ups and downs along the way but for the fourth straight season, we have finished above 60% and put out just under 200 total plays. Bring on the playoffs! Click HERE to become a VIP member for the playoffs!