Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-1.5) - The Colts will go on the road to take on the Texans to kick off Wild Card weekend but it very easily could have been the Texans going on the road to face the Colts. Way back in week 4 of the season, these two teams played a game that the Texans won by a field goal in overtime. At the time, the Colts seemed like they didn’t want to take a tie so they decided to go for it on 4th and 4 from their own 43 yard line with 24 seconds remaining in overtime.
They didn’t get it, the Texans got the ball, and kicked a field goal for the win. How did that work out for you Indy fans? A punt in that situation and you would have a home playoff game. Will that come back to bite the Colts? Only time will tell. Let’s dive into this Wild Card matchup from each side.
The Colts come into this game playing really good football and they have won 9 of their final 10 games of the season. They say that you can only beat the team that the league has scheduled for your opponent but less than half of those 9 wins were against teams who finished the season with a winning record. Andrew Luck has come back healthy this season and he comes into this game averaging 287 passing yards per game and he had his best game of the season against this Texans defense when he threw for 464 yards back in week 4. The Colts will need to move the ball through the air in this game because they will struggle to get the run going against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the league against the run allowing 82.7 yards per game. Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton has been battling an ankle injury and it was still bothering him in the final game of the regular season. His health is very important and he is the X factor for this Colts offense against the Texans who he had 115 and 199 receiving yards in the first two matchups this season.
The Texans started the season 0-3 but they went on to win 11 of their last 13 games but the same can be said for them as the Colts that a lot of those wins came against bad teams with losing records - only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records but most importantly, one of those wins was against this Colts team in overtime. The Colts run defense is ranked #8 in the league so Deshaun Watson will be looking to create plays through the air and he will be looking for DeAndre Hopkins time and time again. Hopkins had 169 receiving yards in the first matchup between these two teams this season but just 36 yards (4 catches on 10 targets) in the most recent matchup. I’ll tell you right now that if DeAndre only has 36 receiving yards on Saturday, the Texans aren’t winning this game.
You have to figure that this game will be close since both meetings between these two teams have been decided by a field goal. Don’t bet on this game until you see my BEST BET for this game - (VIP Members do not purchase because you’ll be receiving this pick)