Started the day with two L’s but came back to salvage the day with the Yankees and the Cardinals. I actually came up up on the day because I hit the Cardinals moneyline for 4 units to equal out the first two L’s. I posted on twitter and instagram when I decided to go heavy on that pick so if you missed it - turn on post notifications so you get a notification every time I post. I don’t always make last minute decisions like that but when I do, it’s nice to get the notification so you can get on it as well. The Cardinals had great numbers against Homer Bailey and chased him in the first two innings. Let’s have a winning Thursday to put us in position for a huge weekend!
Yankees ML / Red Sox ML (+163) - Plus money for these two favorable matchups. The Yankees will take on the Orioles and Dylan Bundy who they have already scored 6 earned runs in 7.1 innings. Tanaka will start for the Yankees and he is 1-0 against the Orioles this season going 5.2 innings and holding them to 1 earned run. The Yankes have outscored the Orioles by 12 runs in the first three games of this series and they have outscored them by 35 runs on the season series. I’ll take the Yanks to win straight up today. Then we have the Red Sox who had a late night win in the 13th last night and first pitch will be early today for both teams. In situations like this, I always take the team who won the night before because they have a little extra boost of energy from that win. The Sox will be up against Clayton Richard who hasn’t pitched yet in 2019 but his career record is 68-79 so he is clearly a loser. He allowed 4 or more earned runs in 44% of his starts last season. Ryan Weber will start for the Sox and we haven’t seen much of him this year but he has only allowed 1 earned run in 8 innings pitched so I like what I’ve seen so far. +163 is really good value for the parlay on these two matchups.
Braves / Giants Over (7.5) - Your initial look at this one might have you thinking not to take the over with Madison Bumgarner pitching but he has not been good this year. Bumgarner has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of his 10 starts this season. He has allowed 11 runs in his last three starts. The Braves are averaging just under 5 runs a game this season so I think this lineup will score some runs off of Mad Bum today. The Giants lineup will take on Kevin Gausman and they come in with a .318 avg in 85 at bats against him. There will also be a nice 8 mph breeze blowing out to left center for this game. I like the over in this matchup today.
Raptors / Bucks Over (215.5) - 3 of the 4 games in this series have gone over 215.5 and the only game that didn’t go over was Game 1 which we can point to the fact that the Bucks offense got off to a slow start after sitting around for a week waiting for the Raptors to finish their series. The average total points in the three games that did go over in this series is 226. I know one of those games was a double overtime game but each one of these teams has scored 120+ themselves in each of the other two games. Both of those games were blowouts so we haven’t even seen the full potential of both of these teams playing at a high level offensively. Milwaukee averaged 118 points per game in the regular season and Toronto averaged 113 points per game in the regular season. We need 108 a side for this one to go over tonight and I’m thinking we get it.