11/9 VIP Picks

0-3 on the night. I don’t have much else to say about it. 30-13-1 since last Saturday is still a much better 7 day stretch than 90% of the sportsbettors across the country had. If the losses were split out evenly it wouldn’t feel as bad but two losing nights in a row have sucked. College Gameday today though, let’s get it!

CFB:

Straight Plays: 12:00 EST Baylor (-3) - Undefeated 8-0 Baylor goes on the road to take on a 4-4 TCU team. There are a few common opponents to call out for this head to head matchup - TCU lost to Oklahoma State 34-27 last week, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-27. TCU lost to Kansas State 24-17, Baylor beat Kansas State 31-12. TCU lost to Iowa State 49-24, Baylor beat Iowa State 23-21. Baylor is coming off of a close game against West Virginia but they have had some extra time to prepare for today because they had the Thursday game last week. The TCU defense was EXPOSED last week when Chuba Hubbard ran for 223 yards against them. Baylor runningbacks JaMycal Hasty and John Lovett must be licking their chops for this matchup today. The Baylor backfield averages 5.2 yards per carry and that average should go up against this TCU defense today. That should open things up for QB Charlie Brewer who has a 161 QB rating against Big 12 opponents this season and he has thrown 14 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. He also has 6 rushing touchdowns. The QB position at TCU is a mess right now. Senior transfer Alex Delton hit TCU with the “ight imma head out” earlier this week and left the program. True freshman Max Duggan is questionable with a hand injury from last week. And back up to the back up Mike Collins has already been ruled out of this game with a rib injury he suffered in last week’s game. I started drooling over this line when I saw this QB situation develop. TCU will rely heavily on their running game with this QB situation and that favors Baylor who has the #26 run defense out of 130. This one seems like a clear mismatch and I think Baylor stays undefeated today while covering the -3 “comfortably.” 3:30 EST LSU / Alabama Over (63) - Both of these teams have had a BYE week to prepare for this game today and it’s a good thing because this is the biggest game of the year. These offenses have averaged 46.8 and 48.6 points per game this season although both of them have had some soft opponents to run the score up on. The defensive averages check in at 20 and 15 ppg but again, they held some weak offenses down to skew those averages. Let’s start with the LSU offense. 46.8 points per game this season. The Tigers have been a run first team in the past but Joe Burrow is having the season of his life and has thrown for 30 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions while completing 79% of his passing attempts. He’s well on his way to the Heisman ceremony. The LSU receiving corps lineup with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Terrace Marshall who are all capable of making big plays happen down the field or catching the ball in space and making things happen. Clyde Edwards-Helaire keeps the defense guessing and he has shown the ability to absolutely tear up a defense when he ran for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against Florida. Now onto the Bama offense. The big question is the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa who is battling a high ankle sprain but Bama claims he is good to go. He has torched defenses this year throwing for 2,166 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions while completing 75% of his passing attempts. He has a loaded receiving corps as well with Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, and Jaylen Waddle. These guys are just as good if not better than the LSU receivers and they are a threat to score every time they touch the ball. Bama also has a great back to keep the offense balanced in Najee Harris who has averaged 5.9 yards per carry this season. Both of these teams have so many offensive weapons and they will be coming out guns blazing today. It would be fun to have this game go into like five overtimes with a final score of 80-78. That probably won’t happen but I do like this game to go over 62.5. So whether you are a GEAUX TIGERS fan or a ROLL DAMN TIDE fan, let’s just all get together and cheer for some fucking points today. Enjoy this one! 

4:00 EST

Iowa / Wisconsin Over (38) - At first glance, both of these defenses stick out with 10.1 & 11.4 points allowed per game. That’s why everybody and their brother are on the under in this one. Not us. 38 really isn’t that much especially if you look at this game a little closer. This Wisconsin defense who was ranked the best in College Football 2 weeks ago has now lost 2 games in a row while allowing 24 & 38 points in those losses. The 38 was to the best team in College Football but the 24 to Illinois was a shocker. Those 2 losses have deflated any playoff hopes for them so you have to wonder if this defense will have the same motivation they did earlier this season. Wisconsin has been a different team at home than we saw on the road over the last 2 games and they have scored 20+ in each of their home games this season including 38 against Michigan State and 35 against Michigan, both pretty good defenses. Iowa has put up 20+ in 5 of their 8 games this season although they have only given up 20+ one time. That game came against Purdue when they let a freshman QB throw for over 300 yards against them. Wisconsin will look to get RB Jonathan Taylor going who has run for 100+ yards in 6 of their 8 games this season but this Iowa defensive front is stout. QB Jack Coan will have to make a few plays through the air. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has thrown for 250+ yards in 5 of their 8 games this season. He also threw 4 picks in 2 games against the good defenses of Michigan and Penn State so look for Wisconsin to force a turnover or two to create a short field. We are fading the public in this one and going with over 38. 

Teaser selections:

Play in groups of 2 to be most profitable.

Penn State (-0.5)

Kansas State / Texas Over (51)

Iowa State / Oklahoma Over (61.5)

Georgia (-10.5)

Notre Dame (-2)

Fuck NHL and fuck NBA today. Fuck College B-ball today too. Today is a day for FOOTBALL! We need it!