11/23 VIP Picks

Back on track with a winning night last night and a good start to the weekend! VIP plays go 2-1 and let’s blame the one loss on the Celtics having their top scorer carted off on a stretcher. Prayers for Kemba Walker to come away healthy. You twitter followers also smashed a free pick yesterday so 3-1 for those of you who hopped on that. BIG slate today and I’m ready for a HUGE day! To. The. Picks. LFG. CFB: Straight Plays: 12:00 EST UCF (-6) - There are two negative things that you can say about this UCF team this year - 1. They don’t play anybody - FACT and 2. They struggle on the road - FACT. All 3 of their losses came on the road this year but all of them were by 3 points or less. So why jump on them today with them on the road again? Well, they have had two weeks to prepare for this game and I think they matchup really well against this Tulane team. Tulane is coming off of a loss to Temple last week, the same Temple team that UCF beat 63-21. Should I stop the write up there or keep going? I have more. Tulane has allowed 39 points per game against conference opponents this season so UCF should run it up like usual. The UCF offense has only scored less than 30 points one time this season and are averaging 44.8 points per game. Tulane has been good on offense as well but QB Justin McMillan has thrown 10 interceptions this season and this UCF defense has 9 on the season. Any interception today will be costly for Tulane because it will be hard enough for them to keep up with the UCF offense without turning the ball over, nevermind if they do. I like UCF to win this one by multiple scores. 

12:00 EST

Oklahoma State (-5.5) - The X factor to watch in this matchup is the Nation’s top running back CHUBA HUBBARD against this below average West Virginia Rushing defense that has allowed 167.4 yards per game this season. Hubbard has four games where he has rushed for more than 200 yards including 296 against Kansas State. Oklahoma State WILL establish the run early and take control of this game. West Virginia made a change at QB last week and they got an impressive win on the road against Kansas State 24-20 but they lost the five games before that and 4 of those 5 were by 10 points or more. Ok St beat Kansas State 26-13. We have seen CHUBA go off before and he should go off again today. Give me the Cowboys at -6!! 7:30 EST Houston / Tulsa Over (58.5) - This one should be an absolute SHOOTOUT! Neither one of these defenses have been very good this year allowing an average of 33.8 and 32.8 points per game. The offenses haven’t been too shabby putting up 30.3 and 25.4 per game. Houston played a game against UCF a couple of weeks ago and there were 73 total points scored. Tulsa played Memphis a few weeks ago and there were 83 total points scored. Both teams have an average of 62 points scored per game over their last five games. The stars are aligning perfectly for this over to hit. Bad defenses and capable offenses. Each offense is averaging just under 400 yards per game and each defense has allowed 412 and 467 yards per game. Good thing Tulsa’s football stadium doesn’t have a nosebleed section because neither one of these defenses can stop one. Both sides should score early and often and go over 58.5 tonight! Parlay: 3:30 EST Michigan ML / Georgia ML / Oregon ML (-129) - Three big favorites but parlaying the moneylines gives us great value at -129. We start off with Michigan who have put together three BIG wins in a row after coming up short against Penn State. They went on to dominate Notre Dame, Maryland, and Michigan State. They will be on the road against Indiana who come in 7-3 and they just played a tight game against Penn State last week but they got a vulnerable Penn State team after they took their first L the week before. The Wolverines are favored by -9.5 so I don’t see a risk taking them to win straight up. Next up - #4 Georgia at home hosting a good Texas A&M team. When I say good Texas A&M team I’m talking about their 7-3 record but they are 0-3 against Top 25 teams this season. They lost 28-20 to the same Auburn team that Georgia just beat last week. The #1 ranked Georgia defense will be a challenge for this Texas A&M offense that has struggled against good defenses this year. I’m confident in Georgia (who control their own playoff destiny) to get the win at home. To close it out, the 9-1 Oregon Ducks who are 7-0 against Pac-12 opponents this season. “Experts” are trying to hype up Arizona State in this game but that’s only because this game is being aired on ABC so they want better ratings. Arizona State has lost 4 games in a row and the last game they played against a Top 25 opponent ended with a 21-3 loss. Oregon is averaging 37.8 points per game on offense and only allowing 14.8 points per game on defense. I think Arizona State is overmatched in this one. All moneylines, -129 odds, YOU TAKE THAT! #HighPercentagePlayOfTheDay Teaser selections:

Play in groups of 2 to be most profitable.

Texas / Baylor Over (51)

Oklahoma (-11)

Memphis (-8.5)

San Diego State (+8.5)

Cross sports parlay:

12:30 EST 

Capitals ML / Raptors ML (+107) - we have had good success with cross sport parlays in the past and this looks like another good one. The Capitals will host the Canucks who have lost 7 of their last 9 games while the Capitals have won 9 of their last 12. The Caps will be looking for a bounce back game after their last performance. Then we have the Raptors hosting the Hawks. The Hawks have lost 8 of their last 10 and have been getting blown out with margins of 25, 21, 49, & 16, not much more needed to be said here. Great value!!