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VIP Picks 10/15/23

4-1 day with the 💣 hitting made for a great Saturday! 9-2 last 11 plays so let's stay hot today!

1:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

49ers (-2.5) / Eagles (+0.5)

  • The 49ers are the team to beat. They are coming off of the 42-10 blowout of a good Cowboys team & they will be facing the Browns without their starting QB. 

  • How’d it go for the Browns with their backup QB a couple weeks ago? 28-3 L & he threw 3 interceptions.

  • This one isn’t going to be pretty for the Browns & -2.5 should not be a problem for the 49ers. Simple as that. 

  • Eagles have made us sweat a few times this year but they are playing Zach Wilson & the Jets today. We only need them to win to cover this teaser. 

  • The Jets have lost 3 of their last 4 & that game vs the Chiefs wasn’t as close as it looked (don’t forget Mahomes slid at the end). 

  • Eagles come in flying at 5-0 & they have some tough matchups vs AFC opponents coming up but the Jets won’t be the one to knock them off. Eagles win. 

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-110)

  • The guy had an interview saying “I’m always fucking open” and followed it up with a 15 catch, 192 yard, 3 TD game.

  • Don’t expect a dud follow up. I like all his props today vs a weak ass 30th ranked Seahawks pass defense but I’m most confident in the TD.

  • This is a big game for the Bengals to get back to .500 & in the hunt for the division. I expect Burrow to be going to his go to guy at home.

  • I also love taking Chase Anytime TD bets because he can score from anywhere on the field. 

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Over (53.5)

  • He’s gone over this number in 3 of the 4 games that he’s had a catch in with Justin Jefferson playing

  • Now Jefferson is out due to injury & the Vikings are going up against the Bears who are the 2nd worst against the pass 

  • Don’t expect Kirk Cousins to just stop throwing the ball because Jefferson is out and Addison should reap the benefits since he’s been the 2nd most targeted WR for the Vikings

  • Big play capability & increased usage should put him in position to go over for us.

  • I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for 100+ so I’ll glad take over 53.5

4:05 EST

Player Prop

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Over (52.5)

  • The Patriots have been horrible the last 2 weeks getting outscored 72-3 LOL! What a joke. 

  • Turnovers have played a huge part in the Pats digging themselves holes early which means it would make sense for them to establish the running game today to avoid interceptions and pick sixes early.

  • This Raiders defense hasn’t been great at stopping the run and they have allowed the leading rusher for all 5 of their opponents to run for 52+ yards this season.

  • Rhamondre has only gone over 52.5 once this season but he’s also went up against some tough defenses to this point.

  • The Raiders have allowed 129.4 rushing yards per game so I’m pretty confident that Rhamondre should be able to run for at least 60 yards on them today.

  • Belichick has to be desperate to at least keep the game close against his former Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels and former QB Jimmy Garropolo so it makes all the sense in the world that the Pats will run the ball.

4:25 EST

Adjusted spread

Lions (-2.5)

  • It’s -135 for the -2.5 but the spread moved to -3.5 this morning and I prefer playing the juice to get -2.5 on the road.

  • The Lions have played a relatively soft schedule other than the Chiefs on Opening Night

  • They go on the road to face the Bucs who come in 3-1 with a bad loss to the Eagles & a good win against the Saints. The Bucs are also coming off of a BYE.

  • However, the Bucs could be without their top WR Mike Evans. 

  • The Lions offense has been their strong point with a balanced passing & rushing attack averaging 29.6 ppg

  • If the Lions can slow down the passing game (especially if Evans is out) then the Bucs are going to be in trouble & have a hard time keeping up

  • Assuming nothing “funky” happens here, I like the Lions to cover -2.5 for us.


8:15 EST

Astros (Verlander) (-142)

  • Verlander was in Postseason form in his start in the division series where he threw 6 scoreless innings against the Twins.

  • He’s been good against this Rangers lineup in the past holding them to a .241 avg in a large sample size of 133 at bats. He’s also got an 81% winning percentage in the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons with the Astros.

  • Jordan Montgomery will pitch for the Rangers and we cashed in on him in both of his first 2 Postseason starts but we are betting against him tonight.

  • Montgomery kinda got knocked around by the Orioles in his last start giving up 5 runs and 9 hits. The Astros also come in with a .275 avg against Montgomery which is solid.

  • Nothing has slowed down the Rangers to this point but I think going up against Verlander in Game 1 will slow them down

  • Let’s take the Stros in Game 1 of what I expect to be a good series.


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