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VIP Picks 10/7/23

0-1 Friday on a night with slim pickings. We don't have that problem today! Locked and loaded with 5 plays!


12:00 EST

Parlay

Ohio State ML / North Carolina ML / Florida ML / Michigan ML / Miami ML (-145) - 2 Unit

  • Weekly double digit favorites moneylin parlays are 5-0 for us this season so let’s hit another

  • Ohio State has played their way up to #4 in the Country and they are coming off of a BYE week and they are 5-0 in games coming off of a BYE week in Ryan Day’s career as Head Coach plus they have won those games by an average of 29 ppg. Maryland might hang around for a bit but this Ohio State defense should shut them down as they have held teams to 9 ppg.

  • North Carolina continues to roll offensively with Drake Maye & they have scored 41, 31, 40 & 31 in their 4 games. Syracuse was looking pretty good until they had to play Clemson last week where they lost 31-14 and turned the ball over 3 times. The UNC defense has come up where they have had to so far and I think they will do it again today.

  • Florida will be at home in The Swamp where they are 3-0 this season. Their 2 losses have come against really good teams but they should take care of business at home vs Vanderbilt.

  • Michigan should cruise to victory against Minnesota who got smoked 31-13 against the only ranked opponent they faced. Michigan’s defense has been historically good holding opponents to 6 ppg so look for that strong D to get it done for us.

  • Miami will be at home coming off of a BYE week. They will face GA Tech who gave up 38 to Bowling Green last week so the high powered Miami offense should be on display in this game. Hurricanes should win big.


12:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Oklahoma / Texas Over (53.5) / Ole Miss / Arkansas Over (54.5)

  • The Red River Rivalry typically features a ton of offense and today should be no different. Oklahoma comes in averaging 47.4 ppg & Texas comes in averaging 36 ppg.

  • Texas had played 2 Top 25 opponents & both of those games went over 53.5. Oklahoma has yet to play a legit defense like Texas but they should be able to score 27+ which is what we need from both teams if we split the number in half. I like that and there’s no better way to start our Saturday than by betting on offense!

  • Then we have Ole Miss who can score at will but they also don’t play defense! Their point totals to date this season have been - 104, 34 (vs Bama), 71, 57, & 80.

  • Arkansas has allowed 68 points over the last 2 weeks to their first 2 SEC opponents. Ole Miss gon’ score and Arkansas is capable of putting up a big number as well, they’ve scored 28+ in 4 of their 5 games this season


6:30 EST

Colorado (-2.5) Alt Spread -138

  • The gauntlet of Oregon and USC is in the past for Colorado and honestly they carry over some momentum from last week’s crazy comeback that came up just short vs USC 

  • They will go on the road to face a 1-4 Arizona St team that has lost 4 in a row with 3 of the 4 losses coming by 14+ points

  • The Colorado offense couldn’t do shit against Oregon but they did put up 41 points against USC last week so they should be ready to go vs a bad Arizona St defense that has allowed 30.5 ppg

  • Arizona St did hang with USC for the first half at home a couple weeks ago but USC pulled away in the 2nd half. I could see a similar situation here but I could also see Colorado coming out and running away with it early. They will be happy to be taking the field against a non Top 10 team for the first time in 3 weeks.

  • Colorado covers the -2.5 for us


Cross Sport

9:20 EST

LA Parlay

Dodgers ML / USC ML (-166) - 💪 

  • The Dodgers will face Merrill Kelly who they come in hitting .318 against and beat him 9-1 the last time they faced him on 8/29.

  • Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA against this Dodgers lineup over the last 4 seasons. They have his number. They are comfortable and confident against him. They are in his head.

  • Clayton Kershaw will pitch for the Dodgers & he was phenomenal down the stretch allowing 2 earned runs or less in 12 of his final 13 starts. 

  • Kershaw has held this DBacks lineup to a .243 avg in a huge sample size & he went 2-0 against them in home games with the Dodgers outsourcing them 19-2 this season!

  • USC continues to look like a true contender in College Football.

  • They allowed (or they were paid off to allow) Colorado to make a crazy comeback last week but they still ended up winning. They are favored by 3 touchdowns tonight vs an Arizona team who did hang around with #7 Washington last week and their potent passing attack. 

  • I still feel pretty good about Caleb Williams and company at home to get the win straight up for this parlay and boost the odds on Dodgers from -200 to -166 for this two team moneyline parlay.


MLB:

4:45 EST

Astros (Verlander) (-156)

  • Justin Verlander will pitch for the Astros & he’s shut down this Twins lineup in the past holding them to .149 avg in a good sample size of 67 at bats

  • Verlander has a lot of Postseason experience (34 starts) and the Astros went 3-1 with him on the mound in last year’s playoffs en route to a World Series Title.

  • Bailey Ober will get the start for the Twins and he was their #4 starter in the regular season so advantage to the Astros. This is also his first ever Postseason start.

  • I don’t trust the Twins. I mean, they would have came in 4th place in the AL East or AL West but lucky for them they play in the AL Central where they beat up on 4 other teams who finished the season below .500

  • I know the Astros struggled down the stretch but I expect them to flip the switch for the playoffs, they are the defending Champs. 

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