2-2 on straight plays and we missed the long shot same game parlay but we were all over Kelce and rightfully so. On to Tuesday Night with some MLB and NHL Opening Night. Let’s get into the picks:
MLB:
5:08 EST
Phillies / Mets Over (7.5) 🥈
Tough to take an over in a playoff game but it’s also tough not to take the over at 7.5 after seeing what each lineup has done against them.
Starting with Manaea for the Mets, the Phillies went 3-0 over 7.5 against Manaea this season and rocked him for 6 runs in 3.2 innings in 1 of those games. Long term success is there to for the Phils who come in hitting .309 against him with 8 guys who have taken him deep at least once. Castellanos who had the game winning hit in Game 2 has 3 career homeruns vs Manaea.
Then there’s Aaron Nola for the Phillies who has a 3.70 ERA in his Postseason career and he typically goes deep into games. But the Mets scored 6 runs in 4.1 innings against him in an 11-3 win last time they faced him less than a month ago.
Each of the first 2 games in this series have gone over 7.5 as well as 7 of the last 10 head to head matchups for these two teams, I love the matchups for the hitters tonight plus there’s a 10 mph wind blowing out to right.
9:08 EST
Dodgers (+125) OR (Run Line +1.5) 🥉
I am confident in the Dodgers to win as an underdog tonight but if you want to play the +1.5 it’s a bit of a safer play.
Michael King is pitching and he’s been great against the Dodgers this season posting a 3.13 ERA against them. It all comes down to control for King, out of the 12 games he lost this year, he had 2 or more walks in 9 of those 12 (75%). The Dodgers ranked 2nd in walks per game this season and it’s a playoff game tonight so expect them to work some counts with good discipline.
Mookie Betts is also SOOOO due and he has 2 homeruns against King in his career, just throwing that out there. Ohtani is hitting .429 with 3 HR vs King and Hernandez is hitting .300 with 1 HR vs King so I feel good about the big bats making something happen tonight.
Walker Buehler is pitching for the Dodgers and he just had his best start of the season his last time out against this Padres lineup where he only allowed 1 run over 5 innings. He’s also held them to a .204 lifetime avg in 157 at bats and the only guy with success against him is Tatis
NHL:
10:10 EST
Connor Bedard Shots on Goal Over (2.5) 🥇
-195, I know, don’t kill me over it. You don’t have to bet it if you don’t want to but I do want to get more involved with high percentage NHL Player Props this season.
Bedard averaged 3.02 shots on goal per game as a rookie last season.
He went over 2.5 shots on goal 61% of the time last season.
I’ll bet 1 to win half a unit on this one.