Well, you know you’re hot when a 2-2 day is a let down. Bama was 3 yarda away from the cover to give us the 3-1 day but the guy definitely stepped out of bounds. I enjoyed the thrill of that 4th and goal from the 31 with the game on the line, those ones are fun and just when we thought we were safe we needed Washington to go for it on 4th from their own territory with an end around to go seal the moneyline parlay. On to today to close out another G R E A T week up 7.45 units since Monday and up 26 units since November 1st!
Teaser 7 Point
Texans (+8.5) / Chiefs (-2.5)
The Texans beat the Jaguars 37-17 in Jax earlier this year so getting them at +8.5 at home feels like stealing today.
The Texans have played 6 straight one score games so look for this one to be a close one.
CJ Stroud has thrown for 336, 357, & 470 in his last 3 games so he should be able to generate the offense to keep this close if not win outright.
The Chiefs are on the road vs the Raiders who have played back to back good games since their coaching change but the Chiefs are looking to bounce back from an L to the Eagles.
The Raiders are another opponent Mahomes has dominated in his career at 9-1. He should lead the Chiefs to a win and a cover of the teaser -2.5.
Teaser 7 Point
Patriots / Giants Over (27) / Bucs / Colts Over (38.5)
The toilet bowl is on today but I just think this number is too low.
The Patriots have gone over this in 4 of their last 5.
The Giants have gone over in each of their last 3 with 31-19, 49-17, & 30-6 games.
If the number was 42, I might not touch it but I’m biting on the bait at 27.
17-13 would go over. I know these 2 teams suck but I think they can get us 27 total points even with the wind gusts.
5 out of the 5 Colts home games have gone over 38.5 this season.
Both defenses have allowed big points totals multiple times this season, the Colts have basically allowed 3 of their last 5 opponents to cover this number themselves and the Bucs gave up 39 to the Texans a few weeks ago.
Both teams should be able to score 20+ in this one.
Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over (68.5)
Derrick Henry hasn’t really done shit the last 2 games but the Titans have been playing from behind. They are playing the 1-9 Panthers today so it should be a good game.
The Panthers allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game
King Henry has ran for 69+ yards in all 3 games that the Titans have won and 3 of the 4 losses that have been one score games.
The Eagles have shown us more than the Bills this season 9-1 and they have beat the Chiefs, Cowboys, & Dolphins. The Bills beat the Dolphins but they are 6-5 and only 2 of their 11 opponents are projected playoff teams. The Eagles are the projected favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The Eagles would be undefeated if it wasn’t for a late INT in a weird game against the Jets.
Phi 4-0 at home / Buf 1-3 on the road
Josh Allen has also thrown at least 1 interception in 7 straight games & this Eagles defense has 17 interceptions this season.
Look for the Eagles to cover at home today.
Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Over (1.5) - 2 UNIT
This one is listed at -190 so we are betting 2 units on it to make up for the juice
Mahomes has thrown 2+ touchdown passes in 7 of his 10 games this season. He also had a 4 TD games vs the Raiders last season.
The Raiders have some injuries on defense and Mahomes should be able to pick them apart.
HEAT CHECK Parlay
108 to 1 odds!