2-2 day yesterday after the late gag by the Cowboys. We are down .97 units on the week and it all comes down to the last day of the year! We are locked and loaded for NFL Sunday so let's get right into the picks.
The Ravens will host the Dolphins today in a huge AFC showdown and the Dolphins are just 4-3 on the road this season.
The high powered Dolphins offense has also been held to 20 or less points in all 3 games they have played against Top 10 defenses. The Ravens defense ranks #1 so I expect them to have success slowing down the Dolphins offense today.
On the other side of the ball, Lamar Jackson continues to make plays and is the favorite to win the MVP.
The Dolphins defense has struggled against good QBs - they allowed 34 to Herbert, 48 to Josh Allen, 31 to Hurts, and 20 to Prescott.
Let’s go with the Ravens to cover at home today.
Teaser (6 pt)
Rams (0) / Chiefs (-0.5)
The only negative thing I can find to say about this matchup for the Rams is that it’s a 1 est game on the East coast for a West coast team so it’s like a 10 a.m. start for them.
The Rams have gone 5-1 over their last 6 and the 1 loss came in overtime against the Ravens, not saying there are good losses but that one is as close as you can get to one.
For this matchup, the Rams have a solid run defense so they should be able to slow down Giants RB Saquon Barkley who is the key piece of their offense.
It hasn’t been pretty for the Giants against teams with winning records this season (0-7) so I’m confident this hot Rams team will win this game on the road.
Then, the Chiefs. Look, if they fuck us again, I will put them on the do not bet list.
If there’s ever a time to bounce back, it’s at home against a Bengals team coming off of a 34-11 loss to the Steelers.
KC is 3-5 in their last 8 but it’s time for them to get back on track. Just win Chiefs, just win.
Bills ML / Eagles ML / 49ers ML (-250) - JACKHAMMER
I’ll catch some heat from some of you for posting this one but I want to finish the last week of the year with a winning week and this is a free unit if you ask me. Risk 3 to win 1+ depending on what book you use.
The Bills aren’t losing to the Patriots again. The Patriots can retain the #3 draft pick with a loss but a win could slide them to pick 5-7.
The 49ers are facing the Commanders who would prefer to lose to help their draft pick chances.
Not the typical stats and analysis you see from me but this is just the reality that we are in today.
Take the free money when you can get it.
*Note - you could put Chiefs in this parlay as a 4 teamer to get the odds closer to even money but I personally don't want to double dip on them so I'm using them in the teaser above.
Alt Line Parlay
Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards / Pat Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards (-107)
Josh Allen has hit 200+ passing yards in 12 of his 15 games this season. He should be looking to throw the ball today against the Patriots because they actually are the #2 run defense this season.
Pat Mahomes has been playing like a bitch lately and he’s still hit 250+ in 3 of his last 5 games. The Bengals rank 28th against the pass and they allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for 290 last week, I know it was Christmas weekend but if Rudolph can throw for 250 on them, so will Mahomes.
Weather looks fine in both places as far as precipitation and wind go. It’s cold in Buffalo but that’s fine.
Seems like easy pickings for great odds of -107.
D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Ovr (68.5)
We’ve cashed in with Swift twice in recent weeks and we are going right back to him in a GREAT matchup for him.
He will be facing the worst rushing defense in the league (Cardinals) who have allowed an average of 147 rushing yards per game this season.
Swift has had 20 and 18 carries in his last 2 games which have been the 2nd and 3rd most carries he’s had in games this season. The Eagles gameplan should feature a lot of Swift running the ball against the Cardinals “run defense” if that’s what they really call it.
*Anytime TD parlays are meant to be low risk high reward, not full unit plays.
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