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VIP Picks 3/28/24

Brutal fucking start to the week. Lots of action today so let’s DIG OUT BOYS!! We have a ton of action to choose from today so let’s make it a Thursday to remember!



MLB:

4:10 EST

Parlay

Dodgers (Glasnow) ML / DBacks (Gallen)  ML (+107) 🥈

  • This will be Glasnow’s second start of the regular season as he pitched Game 1 in the Seoul Series and held the Padres to 2 hits over 5 innings. He’s held the guys in the Cards lineup who have faced him to just 2 for 16 lifetime. Small sample size but great results.

  • Miles Mikolas will pitch for the Cardinals and the Dodgers big bats have had good success against him with Betts, Freeman, & Ohtani hitting .454 against him.

  • Zac Gallen will take the ball for the DBacks and he was next to unbeatable at home last season - they went 12-4 in games he started at home with a 2.47 ERA. He’s been great against the Rockies and has held them to a .218 avg in over 100 career at bats. He faced them once last season and threw 6 scoreless inning against them.

  • The DBacks lineup will face Kyle Freeland who they come in hitting .319 against in over 150 career at bats. They went 2-1 against him last season and out scored the Rockies 14-2 in those 2 wins.


4:10 EST

Giants / Padres No Runs in the 1st 5️⃣

  • Darvish will be on the mound for the Padres and he us 1-0 NRI1 on the season against a Dodgers lineup that is much better than this Giants lineup.

  • Looking at the top of the lineup, Jung Hoo-Lee is making his first MLB start but he went 1 for 2 vs Darvish in the WBC last year. SOler is 0 for 3, Wade is 4 for 12 with 1 HR, Chapman is 0-2, and Conforto is 4 for 16 with 6 strikeouts and a HR. It feels like Darvish can get through a clean first inning as long as he doesn’t give up a long ball.

  • Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants and he only allowed 1 run over a complete game against the Padres last year but ironically that run came in the 1st inning. Still, Webb is a guy with dominant stuff and he has 15 career strikeouts vs the top 4 hitters in the Padres lineup. I would be concerned if the Padres get a guy in scoring position for Machado because he does have solid numbers vs Webb at 7 for 22 but it’s the 1st inning of the season, advantage pitching.



10:07 EST

Guardians (Bieber) (-148) 4️⃣

  • I’ve got the Bieber fever today! He’s coming off of a 6-6 season but he’s a much better pitcher than that record indicates. He still has a 3.27 ERA lifetime and gets a lot of strikeouts. He starts his season against the A’s who ranked dead last in offensive run production per game last season and don’t expect them to be much better this season.

  • The Guardians lineup is anchored by Jose Ramirez but the guys around him are underrated and they should be able to score a few runs tonight and they shouldn’t need much with Bieber on the mound. 

  • Alex Wood will start for the A’s and he was really good 2013-2018 but since then he’s had an ERA over 4 in 4 of his last 5 seasons. His Walks/Hits per inning pitched has gone up and last season was the 2nd worst in his 12 year career.



Cross Sport:

7:00 EST

Arizona ML / UConn ML / Celtics ML (-169) STRONG💪 To Win 1 Unit 🥇

  • 15 of 16 moneyline favorites won in the Round of 32 and we are starting off the Sweet 16 with a couple more who should advance.

  • Arizona gets Clemson who is coming off of an impressive win vs Baylor but they almost blew it at the end. Arizona’s ability to force turnovers (14 per game), rebound, and make free throws, I have them advancing even if this game turns out closer than what the books think.

  • UConn is the only double digit favorite in the Sweet 16 and rightfully so with how well they are playing looking to go back to back. SD St barely got by UAB and then beat up on Yale but UConn will be a much toughr matchup and it’s hard to see the Huskies losing this game.

  • The Celtics blew a 30 point lead and lost by 2 to the Hawks the other night. No excuses for that to happen but they had a 30 point lead with 2 of their starters out. It looks like they will be back tonight and I expect the Celtics to bounce back in a big way after a reality check or wake up call in the last game. The Hawks also played last night while the Celtics have been off since Monday.


7:30 EST

Carolina Parlay

Hurricanes ML / North Carolina ML (+107) 🥉

  • The Hurricanes will host the Red Wings who they have gone 2-0 against this season and they will be home where they have gone 24-9-4 this season. 

  • This will be the 3rd game of a 5 game road trip for the Red Wings and they have lost the first 2, they are also struggling right now just 3-6-1 in their last 10.

  • UNC is going to win the Championship so we are obviously taking them to win tonight against Bama. 

  • These two teams can obviously score a lot of point and I expect this game to be very high scoring. However, North Carolina has a significant advantage on the defensive end and have great transition and three point defense which are the top two things that the Bama offense is going to look to do. I think UNC might actually look to slow this game down and I think that lines up nicely for them to advance. Davis and Bacot with the other guys around them are playing great basketball at the right time.

  • Bama has allowed 100+ to Florida and Kentucky this season.

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