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VIP Picks 5/3/24

0-1 last night and down .95 units on the week going into Friday. We are going to get it started early today at Wrigley Field with a 2:20 EST first pitch and then carry the momentum into Friday Night!


MLB:

2:20 EST

First 5 Innings

Cubs (-130)

  • The Cubs will face the Brewers and starting pitcher Joe Ross who has not been great this season at 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA. He’s coming off of a start where he allowed 7 runs in 5 innings pitched.

  • The Cubs will be returning home from a 7 game road trip so it’ll be nice for them to be back at Wrigley today where they are 10-3 this season including 2-0 in Friday day games.

  • Hayden Wesneski will pitch for the Cubs and he’s gone 4 innings in 2 of his 3 appearances this season and has posted a 0.87 ERA.

  • I prefer taking the first 5 moneyline because the Cubs bullpen is ranking towards the bottom in ERA so let’s get in and get out with an early win on a Friday afternoon.

  • NO Bellinger is kind of shitty for the Cubs but the lineup has still been able to produce for the most part with him out. Morel has hit safely in 3 of his last 4 with homeruns in 2 of those 4 games.


6:45 EST

First 5 Innings

Blue Jays (0.5) 🥇

  • The Blue Jays are facing Patrick Corbin tonight who everyone in the lineup who has faced him come in hitting .300 or better against him. The Jays have struggled offensively in their last 2 games but they should tee off against Corbin tonight like everybody else has been doing. Corbin is 0-3 with a 6.82 ERA on the year.

  • Yusei Kikuchi will pitch for the Blue Jays and don’t let the 2-2 record fool you, he’s been pitching very good with 5+ innings pitched in 5 straight starts and allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of those 5.  Only 2 guys in the Nats lineup have faced him too.

  • The Jays team total could be another good option if you prefer that but my most confident is the first 5 -0.5 because they get to face Corbin.


6:45 EST

Hit Parlay

Justin Turner (TOR) Hit / Freddie Freeman (LAD) Hit (-118) 🥉

  • These two guys are facing starting pitchers who they have really had a lot of success against in the past. 

  • Justin Turner will be facing Patrick Corbin and he comes in hitting .381 against him with 4 doubles and 2 homeruns. It's impressive because Turner has 42 career at bats against Corbin so he has seen a lot of him. It also helps that Corbin has basically been putting the ball on a tee for hitters this season so look for Turner to get a hit against him tonight. 

  • Next up for this hit parlay will be Freddie Freeman who will be facing Charlie Morton. I usually hold back on betting a guy in a hit parlay going up against a pitcher who has been dealing like Morton has been but Freeman's head to head history against him is enough to make me feel good about it. Freeman comes in 10 for 20 against him with 3 career homeruns against him. Freeman has also hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games!


NBA:

9:30 EST

Player Prop

James Harden Points Over (19.5) 🥈

  • Harden put up a fucking stinker the other night to cost us but I’m not passing up on 19.5 points from him in an elimination game with Kawhi out. 

  • Looking at his point totals in this series with Kawhi out it’s been 33, 28, and the stinker 7. 

  • The stinker was just a really bad shooting night for him but he also got benched early in the 4th because the Clippers were getting blown the fuck out.

  • Look for Harden to have a better night scoring tonight and get 20+ for us.

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