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VIP Picks 9/10

Wow, we really can't catch a fucking break. Dodgers come back then blow it. Bama loses at home by double digits for the first time in Saban's career, we miss an over by 2 points and 2 yards. Bad luck or bad picks, whatever you want to call it's been a rough fucking week. But I can't help but have optimism this morning because it's the first NFL Sunday! I've put together 5 plays to start the day plus my "get out of jail" parlay to make up for all the bullshit we've had this week. It gets better and it starts today! I will be at the Patriots game but if the 1 o'clock action is cashing, I will try to get a couple more plays added.


1:00 EST

Bengals (-130)

  • Joe Burrow says he’s ready to go for this game and that’s I need to hear to jump on the Bengals despite being on the road. He also just signed a massive contract so he should be ready to roll!

  • The Bengals defense held Nick Chubb to just 34 yards in the first meeting between these 2 teams last season and they ranked 5th in the league in run defense. I think it will go a long way if they can slow down Chubb today.

  • These two split their season series last year but CLE finished the season 7-10 while the Bengals finished 12-4 and came up just short in the AFC Championship which realistically should have been a home game for them but there was A LOT going on that influenced that.

  • DeShaun Watson is back for a full season but CLE only went 3-3 with him in games he started last year.

  • I’ll take Smokin Joe and the Bengals and I expect them to go deep in the playoffs again this year.


1:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Ravens (-2.5) / Titans (+10)

  • I expect the Ravens offense to have a huge day running the ball against this Texans defense that ranked dead last against the run last season allowing 170 rushing yards per game. (More on that in a player prop below)

  • The Ravens defense lost some key pieces in the secondary but they are facing a rookie QB making his first start without a lot of big time playmakers around him.

  • Baltimore had the 3rd ranked defense in points allowed per game last season and I expect them to give Stroud and Co problems.

  • I also think the Ravens will just run away with this game, literally.

  • TEN has been a team that plays well on the road under Head Coach Mike Vrabel, they are 28-11 at +10 in road games in his time as coach with a ton of outright wins.

  • A strong running game and defense allow them to do that and we can expect more of the same approach this season with Derrick Henry leading the way.

  • As we will see in the featured player prop below, this Saints defense sucked at stopping the run last year so they will struggle to slow down Henry in this game which will allow the Titans to hang around if not win the game outright. We are getting them at +10 with this 7 point teaser.


1:00 EST

Player Prop

Derrick Henry Yards (78.5)

  • The magic number is 15. Derrick Henry went over 78.5 rushing yards in 12 of 14 games when he had 15+ rushing attempts last season!

  • His rushing attempt prop is listed at 18.5 today so I feel pretty good about him getting 15+

  • The Saints defense struggled against the run last season allowing 130.5 rushing yards per game

  • The Titans are a run first offense & don’t expect that to change while King Henry is on the throne.

  • He averaged 96.1 rushing yards per game last season.

  • Over 78.5 rushing yards should be an easy one today and we could very well see 100+.


1:00 EST

Player Prop

JK Dobbins Rushing Yards (62.5)

  • Every running back had a field day vs the Texans last year who ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed per game at 170.2 ypg - some of the biggest games against the Texans were:

  • Jonathan Taylor had 161

  • Derrick Henry had 219

  • Saquon Barkley had 152

  • Dobbins missed some time due to injury last season but he went over 62.5 in all 3 of 5 games once he returned with rushing yard totals of 120, 125, 59, 93, & 62.

  • Dobbins had those big games while splitting carries with Gus Edwards but Lamar Jackson was out.

  • This number has gone up 5 yards since yesterday but I still think 62.5 is a great number for Dobbins vs this Texans defense today because there will be plenty of rushing yards to get for him, Lamar, & Edwards.


4:25 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Patriots (+10.5) / Raiders (+10.5)


  • The Eagles are the better team on paper but Gillette is going to be rocking for Tom Brady Day.

  • Both teams should play strong defense which makes me think the Patriots can keep it close.

  • The issue for the Patriots last year was offense and play calling but they have brought in Mac Jones former College Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien so we can expect more from the offense this year.

  • The Eagles 14-3 record last year came thanks to a relatively soft ass schedule. It’s good to see they play a tougher schedule this year and they won’t be going 14-3. They might start 1-0 today but I think the Pats can keep it within +10.5.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has battled injuries throughout his career but they guy is a winner. He’s had winning seasons in 3 of his last 4 full seasons when healthy.

  • He’s got a good group around him with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Austin Hooper, & Michael Mayer. They are all healthy to start the season so it will be fun to see what they can do together today.

  • Both the Raiders and Broncos had disappointing seasons last year to say the least but the Raiders did sweep the season series. Davante Adams had 100+ yard games both times so I look for Jimmy to hook up with him today despite the weather forecast.

  • The Broncos brought in Sean Payton at Head Coach and hope he can turn things around

  • The Broncos have lost 6 games in a row to the Raiders so I feel good about getting a +10.5 cushion in this teaser today despite them being on the road in a tough place to play.


And I feel like a have to post a parlay option to make up for the cold streak for anyone willing to take it…I’ll call it my get out of jail free card. Let's assume we go 5-0 on the early plays, so we would need something in the range of 9 or 10 to 1 odds to make up for this week.


Bonus Parlay

  • 49ers ML

  • Ravens -9.5

  • Vikings ML

  • Jaguars ML

  • Cowboys ML

(+946)


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