VIP Picks 9/15

3-1 last night to get us almost back to even on the week so it’s time to prance on the weekend starting with Thursday Night tonight! We have a great game on Thursday Night Football and of course another NO runs in the first play.


MLB:

3:08 EST

Rays / Jays No Runs In The First (-142) - Kevin Gausman will pitch for the Blue Jays and he has gone 3-0 NO runs allowed against the Rays this season. His most impressive start against them came in his most recent meeting against them where he only allowed 1 hit over 8 innings and he had 10 strikeouts in that game. He’s been great against the top guys in this Rays lineup. Shane McClanahan will pitch for Tampa and he comes into today with the 3rd best ERA in the league. He’s only pitched against the Jays one time this season and he did allow a run in the first but he only allowed 1 run over 7 innings in that game. Let’s ride his long term success against the Jays lineup where he has held them to a .224 avg in 58 at bats. NO runs in the first!


Added 4:00 EST

8:15 EST

Teaser

Chargers (+10.5) / Over (47.5) - Love me a Thursday Night Teaser and this one seems like a great one. We have two offenses who are capable of putting up points and we have seen them do so in recent head to head matchups. 3 of the 4 Mahomes/Herbert matchups have gone over 47.5. The Chargers have gone 2-2 in those games with the 2 losses coming in overtime so they covered +10.5 easily. Keenan Allen is out tonight but Herbert will still have Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, and others to keep the offense going. We saw the Chiefs and Mahomes drop 44 points in Week 1 so you know their offense is going to be clicking tonight. It lines up to be a high scoring game and I honestly think the Chargers have a good chance to win outright so getting +10.5 feels like a comfortable spot for our first Thursday Night Teaser of the season. Go Chargers!


8:15 EST

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Over (79.5) - We took him to score last Sunday and that’s probably another good play tonight but we are getting better value on his yardage prop. Kelce has BIG games against the Chargers in both games last season with 10 catches for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns in one game and 7 catches for 104 yards in the other. Going over 79.5 by a landslide in both of those games. Kelce started the season with a big game last week racking up 121 yards on 8 catches and he caught 8 of the 9 balls thrown his way. This seems like a nice high percentage play and we are getting -110 odds on it.


8:15 EST

Mike Williams Anytime TD (+145) - The Chargers are going to be without Keenan Allen tonight due to his hamstring injury that he suffered in Week 1. So that boosts the value on Mike Williams tonight. What also boosts his value to score is the fact that he scored 2 touchdowns in the game in Kansas City last season. 7 catches, 122 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Now it should be him and Ekeler as the top two options in the Red Zone for Herbert and there should be plenty of points tonight. It’s surprising to see Williams odds at +145 and not more like -110. We will take the value here and look for him to score for us.


8:15 EST

Same Game Parlay

Justin Herbert Alt Passing Yards 250+ / Pat Mahomes Alt Passing Yards 250+ (-128) - -128 odds for both QBs to throw for 250+ yards tonight looks like stealing. Herbert has gone over 250 in 3 of his 4 games against the Chiefs in his career. Mahomes has gone over 250 in his last 3 games against the Chargers. Herbert threw for 279 last week and Mahomes threw for 360. This game projects to be higher scoring than their matchups last week so the more one succeeds, the better because the other one will follow. The best case scenario for us is for this game to go back and forth all night and I think that’s how it will play out.


8:15 EST

Justin Herbert TD Passes Over (1.5) - Super juiced but just shocking that the books are even offering this line to us. It’s around -200 on Fanduel Sportsbook. The reason for that is because Herbert has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 13 of his last 16 games. I’ll play this one to win 1 unit wherever the juice ends up because I will ride an 81% trend any time I can find one. He threw 6 touchdowns in 2 games against the Chiefs last season. Point total suggests it will be another high scoring game between these two teams so this one seems like an absolute lock.