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VIP Picks 9/17

WHEN THE BOMB HITS!! +3.24 units on that one and that was pretty much the profit on the day because we missed the teaser by 10 points and the refs said Iowa State’s clearly good field goal wasn’t good and they ended up losing by 3. It’s a dog fight in the day and age of legal sports betting. STILL a great day for us and I really wish we dropped that max bet on Thursday that I was talked out of. All that matters is what we do today! My plan is to play the day in slates - 1 pm est games, 4 pm est games, & Sunday Night Football. Be on the lookout because I will be adding plays around 3:45/4 EST and then again around 7:30/7:45 EST


1:00 EST

Teaser 7 point

Packers (+10.5) / Lions / Seahawks Over (40.5)

  • The Packers got a 38-20 win on the road against the Bears last week and now they will go on the road again to take on the Falcons

  • Jordan Love threw 3 touchdown passes last week

  • The Falcons will look to run, run, run and this Packers defense held Bears running backs to just 63 yards last week. I think the Falcons running the ball will also let Green Bay hang around in this game and even have a chance to win straight up.

  • The Seahawks allowed 30 points last week and got absolutely torched through the air allowing 334 passing yards

  • The Lions held the Chiefs to just 20 points last week but don’t forget the Kadarius Toney effect, if he caught open passes the Chiefs would have scored 30+.

  • The Seahawks struggled offensively in Week 1 but they should be able to get it going vs the Lions today

  • Both teams are banged up on defense and don’t forget these two teams played a 48-45 game last season

  • Message me on Twitter/Instagram @kofsports if you don't know how to do a teaser bet so I can teach you


1:00 EST

*KELCE MUST PLAY FOR ACTION - don’t bet it until it’s confirmed he’s in

Chiefs (-3) - adjusted spread on DK at -130

  • We are buying half a point to get the spread at -3 rather than -3.5 because it's a little safer for a low price to pay on the juice at -130

  • It sounds like Kelce is back and that will go a long way for Mahomes because he actually has a guy who can catch wide open passes in critical moments of the game unlike Kadarius Toney in Week 1

  • The Jags were in a straight up battle against a very young and inexperienced Colts team last week

  • KC went 2-0 vs JAX last season including the playoff game where Mahomes got hurt

  • However, Mahomes threw for 331 and 4 touchdowns in the regular season matchup that they Chiefs won by 10

  • I know the NFL script commercial jokes about writing off the Mahomes character completely but I just don’t see that happening just like I don’t see the Chiefs losing to the Jaguars and starting the season 0-2


1:00 EST

Parlay

Bills ML / 49ers ML / Cowboys ML (-103)

  • The Bills (mostly Josh Allen) played horrible last week, they are better than that. I don’t believe this game will be as easy as the spread indicates but I do think the Bills will focus on limiting turnovers and they will win this game at home backed by another strong defensive performance

  • The 49ers looked GREAT in Week 1 and they will face a Rams team who they dominated last season 24-9 and 31-14. I expect another great performance from the SF defense and the offense should be able to do their job.

  • Cowboys were another team who looked GREAT in Week 1 with a 40-0 win over the Giants. Now they have their home opener with a lot of buzz and energy in the crowd following that big 40-0 win. The Zach Wilson led Jets come to town and this Dallas defense will force turnovers and shut down the Wilson led offense. The Jets defense will slow the Cowboys offense down to but at the end of the day, I trust the Cowboys to get the win at home.


1:00 EST

Justin Herbert Touchdown Passes Over (1.5)

  • Herbert only threw for 1 touchdown pass last week but that’s because Austin Ekeler made the Dolphins defense his bitch (more on that later)

  • Ekeler is OUT of this game today due to an ankle injury

  • The Titans allowed Derek Carr to throw for 300+ last week and they were the worst defenses against the pass last season

  • I don’t think Herbert will have any option other than to come out slinging it and that should lead to at least 2 touchdown passes for us


1:00 EST

Player Prop

AJ Dillon Rushing Yards Over (57.5)

  • Packers running back Aaron Jones is not expected to play today due to a hamstring injury so that should increase the workload and stat line for AJ Dillon

  • Dillon will be going up against the Falcons who allowed 154 rushing yards last week!

  • Dillon went over 57.5 rushing yards in all 3 games that he got 15+ carries last season

  • I’d expect Dillon to get 15-20 carries today with Aaron Jones out

  • Make sure Jones is officially listed OUT before locking this one in but it’s a great matchup for Dillon as long as Jones is out

MLB:

1:35 EST

Player Prop Hit Parlay

Gunnar Henderson / Bryce Harper (-124)

  • Gunnar went 3 for 5 yesterday and he's hit safely in 16 of his last 20 games

  • He will face Rays starter Zack Littell who he is 1 for 2 against lifetime

  • Bryce Harper is facing Dakota Hudson who he is 6 for 7 against lifetime

  • Harper has been struggling and has gone hitless in his last 3 games but hit safely in 6 of 7 games before that


4:00 EST

Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-160) on DK

  • McCaffrey scored a touchdown last week

  • He’s now scored a touchdown in 11 of his 14 games since being traded to the 49ers

  • Looking back to last season and the last time he faced this Rams defense, he had 2 touchdowns, one on the ground and one through the air.

  • Odds on DK are playable at -160 but I did see -230 on Fanduel which is a lot of juice but worth betting a little more on if that’s the only sportsbook that you use.

4:25 EST

Broncos (-4)

  • The Broncos lost last week but it was a battle against a Raiders team that I think it going to be pretty good this season

  • The Commanders barely snuck by a Cardinals team led by Josh Dobbs handing the ball off.

  • Russell Wilson completed 79% of his passes last week

  • WAS really struggled on offense last week and Sam Howell was sacked 6 times

  • Both teams should show up defensively with the point total one of the lowest of the week. I’ll take Russell Wilson & the Broncos at home in Mile High over young Sam Howell who still has to prove himself.

  • “Broncos Country, Let’s RIDE!”


8:20 EST

Player Prop

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Over (50.5)

  • The Dolphins allowed 233 rushing yards last week, 233!

  • They almost allowed two separate 100 yard rushers in that game last week, Ekeler had 117 and Kelley had 91

  • Rhamondre Stevenson only had 25 yards on 12 carries last week but that was against a very good Eagles run defense

  • It feels like a game he will get it going in and he went over 50 rushing yards in 8 of the 11 games when he had 10+ carries last season which he should get tonight

  • I think the Patriots will look to establish the running game to try and keep the Dolphins offense off the field as much as possible


A fun one but not a full unit play..I suggest .10 units so if you normally buy 100, do 10.


8:20 EST

Lotto Parlay SGP


  • Mac Jones Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes

  • Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes

  • Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown

  • Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown

  • Kendrick Bourne Over 43.5 Receiving Yards

  • Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown


(+6034)

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