VIP Picks 9/19

Rough day. The Bengals and Raiders losing within minutes of each other was a one two blow that really hurt. Barkley finished with 72 yards when we needed 77. Thank God that the Bucs covered for us and Gibson found the end zone. I am embarrassed to have back to back losing Sundays. Be better Kof.


NFL:

7:15 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Bills (-3) / Vikings (+9.5) - As good as the Bills looked in their opener, let’s not forget that the Titans beat them last season so no chance I’m touching the -10. Teasing down to -3 makes me feel much more comfortable. The Titans did lose to the Giants last week who are no where near as talented as this Buffalo team. The Bills front was a highlight for them and they held the Rams to just 52 rushing yards. Obviously Derrick Henry is a much tougher guy to slow down but I’m confident that they will be able to manage him tonight. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen looked damn near perfect in Week 1. He threw for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns on the Titans last season. We can expect another big game for him tonight and the Bills should cover -3 for us.


Then we have the Vikings who I think have a good chance to win this game outright but their 3-6 road record from last season had me feeling like +9.5 was the better option here on the teaser. The X factor in this game is the fact that the Eagles could NOT STOP THE RUN last week when they allowed D’Andre Swift to run for 144 yards. Dalvin Cook should be in for a big game tonight and that will go a long way for the Vikings in controlling this game. The Min defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to 7 points last week. The Eagles did most of their damage on the ground last week and this Min defense will need to step it up because they did allow Green Bay to average 6.2 yards per rush last week. With that said, we don’t need Min to win this game to win this bet, we just need them to come within +9.5 and that feels pretty good looking at this matchup.


7:15 EST

Anytime TD

Stefon Diggs (+115) - Diggs scored in the Week 1 route of the Rams and he finished that game with 8 catches for 122 yards. The Bills scored 31 points in that game but they could have scored even more points if it weren’t for 3 turnovers in that game. Diggs has now scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 regular season games so expect Josh Allen to be looking his way again tonight. I like getting Anytime TD props on guys who can score from anywhere on the field, not just when they are in the Red Zone and Diggs is exactly that. His touchdown in Week 1 was a 53 yard strike and Allen can hit him in stride as well as hit him on a slant and he can take it to the house. The Titans weren’t bad against the pass last week against the Giants but they were towards the bottom of the league at #25 last season. The Bills passing attack looked REALLY good in their first game. Good value at +115 on the most likely guy to score a TD in this game if you ask me.


8:30 EST

Player Prop

Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Over (71.5) - Cook had 20 carries for 90 yards last week and he has gone over 71.5 in 10 of his last 13 games. The Eagles defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed last week and allowed the Lions to run for a total of 181 yards with D’Andre Swift leading the way with 144 yards himself. I’m sure they will make some adjustments this week but they are up against one of the best and fastest backs in the league in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings game plan was well balance where they ran the ball 47% and threw the ball 53%. I’d expect a similar approach tonight and I like Cook to go over 71.5 yards as long as he gets 15 or more carries tonight. That’s where I feel the magic number lies and I’m confident he will get there for us.



MLB:

7:20 EST

Braves ML / Dodgers ML (-133) - The Braves are fighting for the NL East Title and are just 1 game back of the Mets. They need to take care of business against the Nats who they have gone 10-3 against this season. 18-5 Kyle Wright will pitch for Atl and he’s 2-0 against the Nats this season. He pitched 7 innings and allowed 3 or less runs in both of those wins. The Atl bats will face Nats starter Corey Abbott who has pitched 3 innings or less in 5 of his last 6 appearances so I don’t expect him to last long tonight. That means the Nats bullpen will be working a lot and I like the Braves chances against them. Then we have the Dodgers who have already clinched but they continue to win games. They are going to face Merrill Kelly who they are 4-0 against this season and they just beat him last Tuesday. Clayton Kershaw will pitch for LA and he only allowed 2 hits against Ari over 7 innings last week. The Dodgers aren’t going to rest their starters too much over the next few weeks because they need to stay in the groove they are in to coast to a World Series Title in the Playoffs. They should take care of business against 68-78 Ari tonight.


7:40 EST

Mets / Brewers No Runs In The First - Corbin Burnes comes in 7-3 NO runs allowed in the first in his last 10 starts. He also went NO runs allowed on the first in his only start against the Mets this season. The Mets have failed to score a run in the first in 3 of their last 5 games and they have struggled against Burnes in the past. Max Scherzer returns from the injured list and will start for NYM tonight. Scherzer has allowed a few first inning runs in recent starts but he’s still posted a 2.26 ERA on the season so he’s a good guy to have your money on to get through the first inning especially. He has good numbers against this Brewers lineup including a 32% strikeout rate in a large sample size so look for him to deliver for us tonight.