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VIP Picks 9/19

What a night of fuckery, the Saints literally played no defense on the final drive to blow a cover and settle with a push at -3, Chubb was on pace for 236 yards after the first quarter and then had an ugly knee injury, and then the Browns fucked around and lost too. Draftkings refunded the Chubb bets and prayers to him for a speedy recovery. On to Tuesday and we are at the point in the MLB season where we need to be selective on our action just because some teams are packing it in for the season and others are playing it safe to be fully rested and healthy for the playoffs which start on Oct 3. Let’s get into the action for tonight:


7:05 EST

Player Prop

Yusei Kikuchi Outs Recorded Over (14.5) (-155)

  • I normally wouldn’t touch a guy coming off of an outing like Kikuchi had his last time out - 6 runs allowed in 5 innings, especially when I bet on him in that one. BUT he was really good against this Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium earlier this season holding them to 1 run over 6 innings and he has long term success against them. He’s held Judge and Stanton to 4 for 30 (.133)

  • He also has a 1.91 career ERA at Yankee Stadium.

  • Kikuchi has gone 5+ innings in 8 of his last 10 starts and he went 4.2 in the 2 starts where he didn't finish at least 5 innings.

  • Here are his innings completed in order from most recent - 5, 5, 4.2, 6, 4.2, 6, 7, 6, 6, 5.1.

  • He's also covered his strikeout prop in 7 straight games which is at 5.5 tonight.

  • I'm confident he will stay out of trouble and get through 5 innings in this game as long as he keeps the walks to less than 2 which he has done in 9 of his last 10 starts.

  • This prop has better value on DK.

7:40 EST

Parlay

Cubs ML / Padres ML (+106)

  • The Cubs are looking to snap a 5 game losing streak tonight and they have a pretty good chance to do that against the Pirates who they have gone 9-1 against this season.

  • The line moved from -140 this morning to -190 so I wish we locked in first thing this morning but now we are parlaying for better odds

  • Javier Assad will start on the mound for CHC and he held this Pirates lineup to just 1 run over 7 innings last time he faced them a few weeks ago on 8/27

  • The Pirates haven’t even listed a starting pitcher yet but honestly, I don’t care who it is. The Cubs are in a spot where they should win.

  • The Padres 6 wins in their last 7 games and they’ve scored 21 runs the last 2 days. They should stay hot at the plate when they faced Rockies starter Ryan Feltner who comes in with a 6.09 career ERA

  • Blake Snell will pitch for SD & he held this Rockies lineup to 1 run over 7 innings last time he faced them on 6/11.

9:40 EST

Same Game Parlay

Mariners ML / Julio Rodriguez Hit (-122)

  • The Mariners are in a battle for the Division and Wild Card and lucky for them, they are playing the A’s who they have gone 10-1 against this season

  • Luis Castillo will pitch for SEA & he’s coming in on a 9 game winning streak. He also pitched 6 scoreless innings in his only start against the A’s this season and the Mariners won 11-2.

  • Paul Blackburn will pitch for OAK who hasn’t pitched against SEA this season but they come in hitting .270 against him

  • Julio is 3 for 7 against him and has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games

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