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VIP Picks 9/28/23

2-0 2-0! We are getting hot boys!!! I have it at 14-2 if you tailed the Twitter plays (Lad+Bal) and Harris on SNF plus the Jefferson TD one. If not, you’re still on and 11-2 run. Let’s keep it going tonight. We are 9-1 in our last 10 NFL straight plays and we have Thursday Night Football on Prime coming up tonight.


MLB:

6:35 EST

Red Sox / Orioles Over (7.5)

  • The line is not making a lot of sense here and I’m not missing anything

  • These two teams have gone over 7.5 in 9 out of 9 games that they have played each other this season

  • Chris Sale will pitch for BOS & the O’s have tagged him all 3 times they faced him scoring 7 runs in 4 innings (13-12 final), 5 runs in 5 innings (5-4 final), & 7 runs in 3 innings (9-8 final)

  • Dean Kremer will pitch for BAL & BOS has scored 4 runs in 5.2 (5-4 final) and 5 runs in 3 innings (9-8 final)

  • Both lineups have been quiet in recent games but we can’t ignore the head to head success for both of these lineups against these starting pitchers as well as the fact that every game they have played has gone over 7.5 this season.


NFL:

8:15 EST

Lions (-130)

  • Common opponent check in, the Packers lost to the Falcons and the Lions just beat the Falcons by 2 scores

  • Detroit’s defense has been really good against the run and I think they will make it tough on Jordan Love if the Packers offense turns into a one dimensional passing offense (kind of like the second half of the Packers game against the Falcons)

  • On the flip side, the Packers have not been good at stopping the run (27th out of 32) and I think that will allow this Lions offense to get things going on the ground and open up the passing game for Goff.

  • Both offensive lines are banged up but I trust Goff to deal with the pressure more than Love. We will see though.

  • Goff and the Lions have beat the Packers 3 times in a row and they will be going for their 4th tonight


8:15 EST

Player Prop

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Over (50.5)

  • He missed last week’s game and he’s questionable on the injury report but sources said he is going to play tonight as of this morning.

  • He’s dealing with a thigh injury but how many yards is that worth against the worst rushing defense he’s faced so far this season? I don’t think much.

  • He ran for 74 yards against the Chiefs and 67 yards against the Seahawks who allow 79 & 101 rushing yards per game which both rank in the Top 11 in the league.

  • Green Bay is allowing 136.7 yards per game which ranks 27th our of 32.

  • Montgomery was wearing a different uniform but he’s went over 50.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games against the Packers

  • Look for him to go over for us tonight

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