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💣 Best MLB Home Run Props Today 7/21/25

  • Writer: Kof
    Kof
  • Jul 21
  • 2 min read

If you’re looking for the Best MLB Home Run Props today 7/21/25 with real value and stat-backed matchups, we’ve got three power hitters and one bonus name with elite historical splits and current momentum. These picks are built from historical data, pitching trends, and second-half surges.


Let’s break down the best MLB HR bets today, featuring Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and a bonus Paul Goldschmidt note.


💥 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Today 7/21/25


1️⃣ Aaron Judge (Yankees) – vs Kevin Gausman

Home Run Prop Odds: +190 (Fanduel)

Lifetime vs Gausman:

  • .372 AVG (16 for 43)

  • 6 Home Runs

  • .837 SLG

Aaron Judge absolutely owns Kevin Gausman and is one of the best home run bets on the slate tonight. He’s got 6 career bombs off Gausman. Gausman has struggled with command against righties lately and has given up 4 home runs in his last 3 starts.


2️⃣ Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) – vs Walker Buehler

Home Run Prop Odds: +285 (Draftkings)

Second Half Performance:

  • 2 HR in 3 games post-ASB

  • Buehler HR Trend: 8 of last 9 starts with at least 1 HR allowed

This one checks all the boxes. Schwarber is known for heating up in the second half, and he’s already launched 2 homers since the break. Now he faces a version of Walker Buehler who’s nowhere near his previous form. Buehler has given up the long ball in nearly every recent start (8 of last 9), and this matchup in Philly is primed for another Schwarbomb.

🔥 Schwarber vs RHP this season: .271 ISO, 20 HR


3️⃣ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) – vs Carlos Rodón

Home Run Prop Odds: +450 (Fanduel)

Lifetime vs Rodón:

  • .600 AVG (6 for 10)

  • Strong barrel % and hard-hit rate vs Rodón’s fastball-heavy approach

Vladdy has been seeing the ball well lately and has owned Carlos Rodón over their limited history. He’s slugging well above .800 vs left-handed pitching this month, and Rodón’s command has been shaky—especially early in counts.

Rodón has allowed 5 HR in his last 4 starts, and his fly ball rate is at a season high. If he leaves a fastball up to Vlad tonight, it’s going to the seats.


BONUS: Paul Goldschmidt – vs Kevin Gausman

Lifetime vs Gausman:

  • .563 AVG (9 for 16)

  • Doesn’t strike out vs him (1 K in 16 AB)

While Goldschmidt isn’t our top HR target today, his ridiculous career numbers vs Gausman make him worth a look in alternate markets like RBI or 2+ Total Bases. If you’re stacking Yanks-Jays for DFS or same-game parlays, don’t overlook Goldy.


Final Recap: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today 7/21/25

Player

Opposing Pitcher

Key Stat

HR Odds

Aaron Judge

Kevin Gausman

.372 AVG / 6 HR vs Gausman

+300

Kyle Schwarber

Walker Buehler

HR in 2 of last 3 games / Buehler HR trend

+330

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Carlos Rodón

.600 AVG vs Rodón

+340

BONUS: Goldschmidt

Kevin Gausman

.563 AVG / Low K% vs Gausman

ALT props

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Best MLB Player Props Today 7/21/25

 
 
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