Best MLB Player Props Today 7/10/25 – Juan Soto Total Bases Prop

Welcome back to our Best MLB Player Props Today series for July 10, 2025. Today, we’re targeting Juan Soto’s total bases prop in Game 1 of the doubleheader, backed by elite matchup history against veteran right-hander Charlie Morton.

Today’s Featured Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases

📌 Matchup: Mets vs. Orioles (Game 1)

📌 Pitcher: Charlie Morton (RHP)

📌 Prop Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases

Why We Love This Prop

1. Career Domination vs. Charlie Morton

Juan Soto has absolutely owned Morton in their career matchups:

• Career vs Morton:

  .667 average (8 for 12) with 3 home runs (ESPN Player Stats).

• Slugging Percentage vs Morton:

  Over 1.667 slugging percentage in these matchups, highlighting both consistent contact and power upside.

  
  

2. Morton’s Pitching Profile Feeds Soto’s Strengths

• Morton relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and curveball, both pitches Soto crushes.

• Soto’s expected slugging vs right-handed fastballs and curves is .590+ over the last two seasons (Baseball Savant Soto Profile).

3. Walk Rate Consideration

• One caution with this prop is Morton’s approach to Soto historically:

  • 7 career walks issued to Soto

• This indicates Morton may pitch around Soto, limiting his hitting opportunities.

• Alternative Prop Consideration: Soto to record a walk could hold even stronger value depending on posted odds today.

4. Game Factors

• Doubleheader Motivation: Soto will be aggressive in Game 1 to set the tone for the day.

• Ballpark: Camdeb Yards is hitter-friendly today with 79°F and light winds out to right-center (Weather.com Baltimore Forecast).

  
  

  Why This Bet Has Value

  • Elite matchup data with power upside

  • Soto’s consistent ability to barrel Morton’s pitch mix

  • Doubleheader Game 1 motivation for maximum focus and plate discipline

  
  

  However, due to Morton’s high walk rate vs Soto, also consider Soto to record a walk as a correlated or alternative play today.

  
  

  Final Pick – Best MLB Player Prop Today

  Bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases

  Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

  
  

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  Let’s cash this Soto total bases prop today and build momentum through the doubleheader. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s Best MLB Player Props to keep growing your bankroll daily.